The Administration has decided to attempt to sidestep the issue, declaring that the ceasefire effectively halted military action.

We’d argue that the imposition of the blockade which has involved the use of lethal force (disabling kinetic effects) is a clear indicator of the continuation of the military’s actions. Further, that CENTCOM, its service components, and task forces (like JTF 82 built around the 82nd Airborne Division) is continuing to generate combat power, consolidate, and reorganize.

Having said that, there is virtually no chance that Congress will contest this move. Republicans appear to be supportive of the move—for the most part—and Democrats have failed repeatedly to garner support for any sort of resolution to limit the President’s authority.

What’s more, it’s highly unlikely that the judicial system would rule against the Administration on this case.

And honestly, that’s probably not a bad thing at this point. But, that requires us to divorce the handling of the war (politically terrible, strategically unclear, and operationally and tactically incredibly) up to now with how we treat the situation moving forward.

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Operation Epic Fury

• Trump rejects Iran’s offer and will maintain blockade until a nuclear deal (AX)

• Hegseth testifies at Senate that Iran’s war has cost $25B (FX)

• Analysts cast doubt on cost of war, suggest its missing key costs (BBG)

• Gov’t insiders places the cost at closer to $50B (CBS)

• U.S. military wants to deploy its hypersonic missiles for first time against Iran (BBG)

• CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper to brief POTUS on new options for Iran (RT)

• SecDef Hegseth tries to claim ceasefire ‘stops’ war powers resolution clock (RT)

• U.S. Navy turns to AI firm Domino for options to counter Iranian mines (RT)

• Israel rushed Iron Beam laser system to U.A.E. to help intercept Iranian attacks (TOI)

News Headlines

• GOP senators lose confidence in Hegseth amid Pentagon turmoil (TH)

• After Senate anger, Pentagon ‘released’ $400M in Ukraine funding (BBG)

• Trump, Putin discuss Ukrainian ceasefire, forget to include Ukraine in conversations… again (KP)

• U.S. public debt topped 100% of GDP for first time since WWII (WSJ)

• Tungsten hits record highs on Chinese export controls and military demand (RT)

• Jerome Powell will stay on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after chair term ends (WSJ)

• Trump threatens to reduce U.S. military presence in Germany, Spain, Italy (NYT)

• U.S. senators ban themselves from prediction markets trading (CNBC)

• Trump signs DHS funding bill that ends shutdown for most of agency (NPR)

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warns SecState Rubio over Taiwan ‘risk factor’ (TWN)

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Defense & Dual-Use Technologies 

• Global military spending surges and reaches record high (DN)

• The Pentagon wants to spend another $53M to codify its preferred name as “Department of War”, asks Congress to make its transition official (MT)

• DoD launches cyber apprenticeship program (NG)

• Air Force plans to 5-yr, $12B buy of 28,000 ‘cheap’ cruise missiles (ASF)

• The Army wants to manufacture meatless proteins in combat zones (DN)

Threat Tech

• China showcases YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missiles (MP)

• Convicted former Harvard scientist Charles Lieber rebuilds brain computer lab in China (RT)

• FBI cyber boss: China’s ‘hack for hire’ system is ‘out of control’ (RT)

• Russia scales back Victory Day parade, excludes equipment over fears of Ukrainian counterattacks (WP)

• Russian shadow airlines use Algeria as base for secretive missions (DN)

• AI chatbots told scientists how to make biological weapons (NYT)

Foreign Defense Tech

• Canada to host new multilateral defense bank (AP)

• NATO eyes Swedish-Canadian jet for AWACS role in shift away from Boeing (DN)

• Massive $14.4B frigate buy from Japan jolts Aussie warship program (DN)

• Israel now using nets to protect vehicles against Hezbollah attack drones (TWZ)

• Italy forgoes $14B deficit spending on defense amid wobbling economy (DN)

• Ukraine is using top-end AMRAAM missiles, shootable from F-16 or NASAMS (TWZ)

Defense Industry

• Army moves ahead with $591M, delay-plagued General Dynamics ammo plant (BBG)

• Bombardier CEO: Honeywell Aerospace spinoff is positive for supply chain (RT)

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Autonomous Systems 

• The U.S. wants a fleet of missile-killing laser drones (DN)

• Air Force seeks $1B for initial procurement of collaborative combat aircraft (DN)

• Romania can now acquire counter-drone tech through U.S. Army marketplace (MT)

Finance & Deal Flow

Funds

• 137 Ventures raised $700M across two new funds to back startups over longer time horizons; 137 has a 1% stake in SpaceX worth over $10B (TC)

• Danish physical early-stage VC KOMPAS VC raised $190M for its second fund (TFN)

VC

• Scout AI, a frontier lab for defense, raised a $100M Series A led by Align Ventures and Draper Associates (PRN)

• Sereact, a German robotics startup, raised a $110M Series B led by Headline (SA)

• Firestorm, a defense startup building containerized drone manufacturing platforms, raised an $82M Series B led by Washington Harbour Partners (TFN)

• DISA Technologies, a mineral processing and uranium remediation company, raised a $33M strategic round led by Galvanize (PRN)

• U.K.-based All3, a construction robotics and AI startup, raised a $25M seed round led by RTP Global (TFN)

• Pursuit, a startup that helps companies sell to government, raised a $22M seed round led by Mike Rosengarten (TC)

• Skyfire AI, a public-safety and mission-critical drone autonomy startup, raised an $11M seed round led by Mucker Capital (sUN)

• QuoIntelligence, a European threat intelligence company, raised an $8.5M Series A led by Elevator Ventures (PU)

PE / M&A / Exits / Other

• Defense supplier L3Harris ​confidentially filed for an IPO of its missile solutions business (RT)

• A shell company backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump agreed to merge with Kaz Resources, a critical minerals firm that secured $1.6B in US government support to mine tungsten in Kazakhstan (MIN)

• Arlington Capital Partners acquired a majority stake in nuclear engineering company Enercon from Oaktree for $1.25B and will merge it with Pond & Co (BW)

• Czech ​defense group CSG will set up a JV worth hundreds of millions of dollars between its Excalibur Army Azerbaijani subsidiary and ​a local partner (RT)

• Belgium is in talks to acquire the Belgian nuclear operations of French utility Engie (BBG)

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Exciting Opportunities

• DARPA calls for proposals for autonomous underwater drones (SAM)

Editor’s Picks

• Middle East Institute researcher Javid Ahmad and Soufan Group director of policy and research Colin Clarke echo our warnings that America is fighting the wrong drone war.

• Z Factor president Christopher Zember and CSIS Center for the Industrial Base director Jerry McGinn argue for U.S.-Canadian defense industrial alignment.

• Business Executives for National Security CEO Timothy Ray wants government and business to rethink their relationship in an era of growing economic statecraft.

• Building our Future founding member David Lewis runs down the implications of the Navy’s new maritime FOB in a box capability.

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Iran, for its part, has fired on multiple oil tankers in the Gulf and Strait, continues mining operations to choke maritime traffic, is extracting tolls, and has deployed its shadow fleet to challenge -the U.S. blockade.

The war has exhausted both munitions and time. While we’ve previously discussed the high expenditure of exquisite munitions, we’re now starting to see the second and third- order effects of that burn rate. SecDef Hegseth allegedly alerted several European counterparts of potential delays to foreign military sales resulting from the need to refill U.S. stockpiles before fulfilling orders from allies and partners.

This is a necessary step to rebuild American combat power; but, it is also a revealing one, underscoring:

1. A military and industrial base unprepared for protracted conflict

2. The fragility of the multinational, America-aligned defense procurement system

More importantly, it exposes a deeper structural reality: the United States is still optimized for short wars, even as it finds itself increasingly drawn into long ones.

If the industrial base is struggling with the duration of war, the political system is now confronting it directly. The War Powers Resolution of 1973 (50 U.S.C., chapter 33) requires the president to either gain Congressional approval for the war or terminate it within 60 days. That deadline arrives on May 1st.

Economic and commodity market analyst has outlined four potential paths forward.

• Congress passes an AUMF: the war is legally authorized.

• Trump certifies a 30-day extension: buys time, signals no exit strategy, extends the deadline to June. Nadal sees this as the base case.

• The deadline passes without action: historically the most common outcome.

• Congress forces termination: legally possible, politically almost impossible. Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-FL) have signaled they may not support authorization, but that is not the same as voting to end the war. Democrat-backed efforts to put an end have failed five times over the past 54 days.

It’s noteworthy that there is no explicit statutory mechanism that pauses the 60-day deadline during a ceasefire. The Lebanon truce does not reset it. The Hormuz ceasefire extensions do not reset it.

Tempus fugit. The clock is ticking.

The constitutionality of the War Powers Resolution has long been debated. As a result, the administration may choose to ignore the deadline altogether—continuing operations while leaving the question to the courts.

If that occurs, it would reinforce a familiar pattern: in modern conflict, legal frameworks struggle to constrain strategic reality. Wars do not end on timelines. They end when the underlying conditions change.

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Operation Epic Fury

• Trump orders U.S. military to ‘shoot to kill’ Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz (AP)

• Trump: Lebanon, Israel extend ceasefire by 3 weeks (AP)

• Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons (NYT)

• U.S. destroyer ‘escorts’ Iranian oil tanker in Indian Ocean (WSJ)

• The Pentagon wants to punish its allies for not supporting its war; email floats ideas of suspending Spain from NATO and reviewing European territorial claims (RT)

News Headlines

• Secretary of the Navy John Phelan ousted (DN)

• U.S. soldier charged with making $400,000 on Maduro removal bets using classified info (RT)

• The U.S. has taken $21B worth of equity stakes under Trump admin (BBG)

• First Citizens will retire the ‘Silicon Valley Bank’ brand (BBG)

• Trump intends to invite Putin to G-20 summit in Miami (WP)

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Defense & Dual-Use Technologies 

• Pentagon formally unveils $1.5T budget request (MT)

• Air Force extends A-10 Warthog service through 2030 (MT)

• Navy considers new Warfighting Development Center for robotic and autonomous systems (DS)

• Navy tests new Joint Direct Attack Munition - Long Range (NN)

• Navy to arm ships with PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors to counter hypersonic threat (RT)

• Navy researchers are surging on tech that defense tech companies are overlooking (DO)

• Navy expects construction of Trump-class battleship to begin in FY28 (BD)

• Pentagon budget does not fund E-7 Wedgetail AEW&C aircraft (ASF)

Threat Tech

• Unregulated prediction market may endanger U.S. national security: experts, lawmakers (MT)

• China is waging a ‘deliberate, industrial-scale campaign’ to steal U.S. AI models (NG)

• Russia is publishing lists of and threatening drone makers that are helping Ukraine (RFE)

Foreign Defense Tech

• Europe’s defense startups face even bigger hurdles than America’s (TE)

• Australia refines defense strategy and investment plan to achieve self-reliance, resilience, coordination with regional partners, and improved civil preparedness (DN)

• Denmark to receive its first SAMP/T NG air-defense system in 2028 (DN)

• Iran war delays U.S. weapons deliveries to Estonia, Lithuania (TDP)

• France plans ballistic missile by 2035 (DN)

• Germany wants the strongest military in Europe, once more (DN)

Defense Industry

• Navy to study possibility of building ships outside of U.S.: SecNav Phelan (MT)

• Anduril announces partnership with Kraken for small USVs (BD)

• Anduril, HD Hyundai expand partnership with first autonomous surface vessel in production (DN)

• Navy selects Castelion‘s Blackbeard as its primary hypersonic strike munition (NN)

• Destinus tests new version of its long range cruise missile (DB)

• Pentagon closes $1B investment into L3Harris missile unit (SN)

• Northrop‘s Talon IQ testbed hot-swaps AI brains mid-flight (BD)

• Northrop details U.S.-Japan workshare on counter-hypersonic Glide Phase Interceptor (NN)

• RTX issued a Q1 beat-and-raise on strength in its defense business (WSJ)

• Saildrone announces new USV class aimed at antisubmarine warfare (MT)

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Autonomous Systems 

• DoD moves to make largest-ever investment ($54B+) in drones and anti-drone weapons (DS)

• Air Force tests Anduril‘s semiautonomous combat drone (DN)

• Coast Guard adopts new drone defense mission for high-security events like World Cup (DS)

• Navy unmanned surface vessel fleet to grow sevenfold in Indo-Pacific (MT)

• Ukrainian unmanned vessel launches interceptor to knock out Shahed drone (MT)

• Invariant successfully demonstrates counter-drone capability from USV (NN)

Finance & Deal Flow

Funds

• Cerberus Capital Management raised a $2.3B single-asset CV for Subsea Communications led by CVC (PEH)

VC

• Blue Energy, a developer of financeable, prefabricated nuclear power plants, raised $380M in financing led by VXI Capital (TC)

• Reliable Robotics Corporation, an autonomous aircraft systems developer, raised $160M in new funding led by Nimble Partners (BW)

• U.K.-based Wayve raised a $60M Series D extension led by Qualcomm, AMD, and Arm to scale its mapless autonomous driving AI (TS)

• NanoTech Materials raised a $29.4M Series A led by HPI Real Estate and Investments to develop heat- and wildfire-protection materials (TS)

• Fortem Technologies, counter-UAS sensors and software maker, raised a $25M Series B from Lockheed Martin (DD)

• Finnish startup Kelluu raised a $17.6M Series A led by NATO Innovation Fund to build an autonomous airship intelligence platform (TEU)

• Rilian, an AI-native cybersecurity and defense systems integrator, raised a $17.5M seed and seed extension led by 8VC (BW)

• HYFIX Spatial Intelligence raised a $15M seed round led by Craft Ventures to develop chips for drones and robots (VND)

• Norway-based Stendr raised a $5.4M pre-seed led by Rainfall, ACME, and Skyfall for AI-native drone defense (TEU)

• Australia-based Deteqt raised a $5M seed round led by Main Sequence for defense-use quantum sensing (SUD)

PE / M&A / Exits / Other

• Madison Dearborn Partners-backed drone maker AEVEX rose 35% in its trading debut after raising $320M for a $3B market cap in an IPO (WSJ)

• Miner Lumina Metals is seeking to raise $250M in a Canada IPO (BBG)

• Finnish defense tech companies Savox Communications and Varjo Technologies are weighing Helsinki IPOs (BBG)

• Avem Partners completes acquisition of PAMCO (BW)

• Airbus agreed to buy French cybersecurity company Quarkslab (WSJ)

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Exciting Opportunities

• Navy is looking for helicopter-borne sonar that can detect submarines and naval mines (DSIP)

Editor’s Picks

• Former CENTCOM commander and CIA Director David Petraeus and Zero Line co-founder Isaac Flanagan offer caution to the Pentagon over planned funding to the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG).

• of War & Peace explores the dismal state of naval military readiness and how the three aircraft carriers in the Middle East represent the total serviceable force.

• investigated market manipulation and insider trading so far during the Iran War.

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But the ceasefire reveals something far more important: the United States no longer controls escalation the way it once did.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Iran has agreed to allow all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the U.S.-Iranian temporary ceasefire (which extends until next Wednesday, April 22nd)—although, the U.S. says its blockade of Iranian ports will remain in effect until a permanent peace deal is agreed. And, there are hints that U.S.-Iranian negotiations will resume this weekend.

This may be the best opportunity for all sides to deescalate the war, which would benefit all parties. U.S. and other western intelligence agencies have come forward announcing that they believe that the Iranians were able to blunt much of the impacts of the strikes from Operation Epic Fury through preparations. These preparations included both physical preparations such as placing critical weapons systems in hide sites, and preparations for continuity of operations and governance. Iran’s stockpile of critical munitions remains in the thousands, meaning that the tit-for-tat exchanges could continue for a significant period.

What’s more, China has been allegedly and secretly increasing its support to Iran. Two years ago, China sold a spy satellite, the TEE-01B (Earth Eye), to Iran. This satellite has provided Iran with an important imagery intelligence (IMINT) capability used for targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East. What’s more, the Defense Intelligence Agency has concluded that China is preparing a significant weapons shipment to the Islamic republic and that China is considering providing advanced X-band radar systems.

These activities highlight two important facts that are shaping today’s and tomorrow’s battlefields:

1. The growing Axis of Autocracy—also sometimes called Axis of Resistance for its role in opposing the Western-derived rules-based order—and it’s role in proliferating capabilities, tactics, techniques, and procedures designed to blunt U.S. and Western military advantages.

2. The consequent proliferation of advanced technologies that moot U.S. technological overmatch and superiority.

On this second point, we need to highlight several developments from this week that span three levels of competition: state strategy, industrial production, and individual innovation. Together, these developments point to the same conclusion.

First, the United States House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (informally: House Select Committee on China) released a report this week about China’s approach to accelerating technology parity. China will buy what it can, steal what it must. This is consistent with their years-long campaign to acquire or steal technology to ensure the People’s Liberation Army remains competitive with the U.S. military.

Second, the Japan Integrated Security Design Agency (JISDA) has announced the availability of the ACM-01 Shiraha wood-framed fixed-wing drone with a unit cost of ¥70,000 (approx. $450). It’s unclear what payloads are included, if any, at that price point. Nevertheless, this system highlights the importance of the shifting cost curves in modern warfare: in order to build scalable, attritable mass, unit prices must be orders of magnitude below current U.S. platforms.

Third, a Moroccan engineer named Nawfal Motii has designed an open-source radar system, the Aeris-10, sharing the designs in GitHub. The radar has a 20km range and a rough price tag of $5,000 to $7,200. Comparable, commercial-off-the-shelf, phase-array radar systems cost around $250,000. The savings, multiple orders of magnitude, are noteworthy for similar reasons as the Shiraha drone and the $96 MANPADS that we discussed several weeks ago: these systems all point to the reality that technology has lowered the barrier to entry to conflict. Technology has made it possible for poorly funded individuals and groups to access weapons that closely approximate the most exquisite systems for a fraction of the cost.

This reality—what we call National Security Arbitrage—is a feature of modern warfare and it will persist into the foreseeable future. Precision is democratized. The cost curves have collapsed. And scale now matters as much as—or more than—sophistication.

When $5,000 systems can approximate capabilities that once required nation-state budgets, the logic of technological dominance begins to break down. The most advantaged competitors, like China and Russia, are approaching parity, while disadvantaged actors can access “good enough” systems to impose costs and hold U.S. assets at risk.

In other words: American technological overmatch—and the American way of war built upon it—have ended.

As a result, it is no longer sufficient to build better systems. The advantage will belong to those who can integrate, distribute, and sustain systems-of-systems across time, space, and domains—generating combat power through scale, resilience, and coordination rather than exquisite performance alone.

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Operation Epic Fury

• Iranian foreign minister announces full opening of Strait of Hormuz to all maritime traffic for the remainder of the temporary ceasefire (X)

• U.S., western intel services: Iran has limited the impact of U.S. strikes (BBG)

• Senate blocks fourth attempt to pass Iran war powers resolution (RC)

• U.S. Senate republicans back Trump military sales to Israel (RT)

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire in effect as Trump says U.S. ‘close’ to deal with Iran (AP)

• SecDef Hegseth renews threats against Iranian energy infrastructure (TG)

• U.S. military will target Iran-linked ships worldwide, broadening scope beyond blockade (AP)

• Iran used Chinese TEE-01B spy satellite to target U.S. military bases in Middle East (FT)

• China mulls giving Iran advanced X-band radar systems (CBS)

• U.S. intelligence shows China taking a more active role in Iran War, preparing weapons shipment (NYT)

News Headlines

• Trump threatened to fire J Pow if he doesn’t quit following chair term (CNBC)

• Trump warned he could rip up US-UK trade deal (BBG)

• Pope decries world ‘being ravaged by tyrants’ in wake of Trump attack (TG)

• Democrats introduce 6 articles of impeachment against SecDef Hegseth in exceptional long-shot (TH)

• Ex-CIA director, Ex-CENTCOM commander David Petraeus says U.S. needs to learn ‘whole new concept of warfare’ from Ukraine (CBS)

• Acting ICE chief Todd Lyons resigns, a year into Trump’s deportation campaign (WP)

• Ukraine scrambles to supply air defenses as large-scale Russia attacks kill 16 (AP)

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Defense & Dual-Use Technologies 

• Navy ends U.S.S. Boise submarine overhaul after price tag soars (DN)

• Arleigh-Burke class destroyer equipped with Coyote counter-drone missile launcher (NN)

• U.S. push to counter hackers draws industry deeper into offensive cyber debates (DO)

• Army names new assault aircraft ‘Cheyenne II’ (MT)

• Air Force debuts operational AI wargame system (DN)

• National cyber director: expect more cybersecurity executive orders soon (NG)

• Hobbyist builds Aeris-10 radar 95% cheaper than $250K commercial system (THW)

Threat Tech

• China tests its new 925 km/h stealth drone (ECO)

• China’s Fujian aircraft carrier to achieve ‘full operational capacity’ by end of year (NI)

• New drone swarm system lets China control 90+ aircraft at once (SG)

• North Korea expanding ability to build nuclear arms: IAEA chief (AlJ)

• Russian military hackers attack thousands of consumer routers (AT)

• Russia trains teenage influencers to churn out pro-war content (KP)

• Russia threatens to target European companies supplying drone components to Ukraine (RFE)

Foreign Defense Tech

• E.U. pumps over $1B into defense R&D, centered around Ukraine war lessons (DN)

• Estonia raids combat-vehicle funds to buy more drones, air defenses (DN)

• France tests mobile corps command posts in major war exercise (DN)

• Germany, Ukraine strike drone production, military support deal (AlJ)

• Germany to get unprecedented access to Ukraine combat performance data as part of deal (DN)

• Italian government shakes up Leonardo leadership, ousts CEO (DN)

• Rattled by Trump, U.S. allies eye Japan’s biggest arms opening since WWII (DN)

• Japanese startup develops Shiraha drone for under $450 per unit (TDB)

• Morocco eyes U.S. Army’s HADES spy plane for its ISR needs (TDP)

• South Korean defense firm LIG D&A enters U.S. market with subsidiary and 2.75-inch rocket (DB)

• Swedish, Polish firms invest in TNT plants to quench Europe’s ammo thirst (DN)

• Ukrainian drone makers visit Paris looking for co-production deals (DN)

• Ukraine debuts new, homegrown Koral surface-to-air missile (TWZ)

Defense Industry

• Center for Maritime Strategy: U.S. Navy should rely on allies to boost maritime industrial base (MT)

• AeroVironment launches new multifunctional drone variant (DN)

• L3Harris announces $1B+ expansion to boost solid rocket motor production in Virginia (BW)

• Northrop gets $475M to speed up development of new hypersonic missile killer (TDB)

• Raytheon launches AMRAAM-ER missile full-rate production (DB)

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Autonomous Systems 

• CH-47 Chinook air-launching drone swarms touted as future feature (TWZ)

• ‘Best drone’ innovation winer developing enemy drone recovery system with the Army Research Lab (DO)

• Cheap interceptor drones proven in Ukraine protect U.S. troops against Iranian Shaheds (TWZ)

Finance & Deal Flow

VC

• NanoTech Materials, an advanced materials company, raised a $29.4M Series A led by HPI Real Estate & Investments (BW)

PE / M&A / Exits / Other

• Arxis surged, raising $1.13B in Nasdaq debut, signals strong demand for aerospace IPOs (RT)

• Machine engineering firm Esco Technologies agreed to acquire TBG‘s testing unit Megger Group in a $2.35B cash-and-stock deal (WSJ)

• Swedish sensor tech maker Hexagon will buy peer Waygate Technologies from energy tech giant Baker Hughes for $1.45B cash (RT)

• Amazon-backed nuclear reactor developer X-Energy is seeking to raise $815M at a $7.5B valuation in its IPO (TC)

• AEVEX announces pricing of IPO as it seeks to raise $370M (BW)

• Robotics software firm Skild AI acquired the robotics automation division of Zebra Technologies (BW)

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Exciting Opportunities

• The Air Force Research Lab is seeking information regarding capabilities supporting an advanced tech development effort for large aircraft threat sensing and cueing (SAM)

• The Army has issued a commercial solutions opening for unmanned ground vehicles capable of providing last tactical mile sustainment and casualty evacuation (SAM)

• The Air Force has issued a commercial solutions opening seeking containerized, one way attack air-interdiction drones that can operate at 50+ mi, and at speeds over 200mph (SAM)

• The U.K. Defence Innovation (UKDI) is seeking novel ideas to detect and defeat fiber-optically controlled drones (JO)

Editor’s Picks

• Retired U.S. Navy Vice Admiral and Building our Future founding member David Lewis highlights the reality that the Nation’s problem is much larger than just a shipbuilding problem.

• The House Select Committee on China released an investigation on China’s campaign to acquire frontier AI capabilities by hook or by crook.

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Below are three things that we’re watching going into the weekend—and what it means for the future of warfighting.

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This week, we’re providing a brief situational snapshot.

Western-flagged ships have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the War began more than a month ago. First was a Japanese liquified natural gas ship that was not carrying cargo. A Maltese-flagged CMA CGM ship made it through and three Omani tankers hugged the coast of the UAE and Oman to sneak through.

Nevertheless, oil prices remain elevated—largely on President Trump’s rhetoric during his national address earlier this week that sought to reassure markets but largely backfired.

SecDef Hegseth has asked the Chief of Staff of the Army General Randy George to retire early, allegedly following George’s refusal to comply with Hegseth’s attempts at interfering with Army officer promotions. Hegseth wanted several minority and female officers struck from a promotion list to general officer ranks. Hegseth has also sent the Army’s commander of its Transformation and Training Command (T…

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It’s become a cliché of military thought—but clichés persist for a reason.

Logistics don’t just support war. They determine whether a war can be fought at all.

Napoleon discovered the importance of logistics planning during the 1812 campaign into Russia.

Russia learned what happens when logistics aren’t properly planned and prepared during its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

America understood the importance of logistics planning during the Second World War. It’s why the base plan for Operation Neptune (the Normandy invasion on D-Day) was only 13 pages, but the detailed logistics portion of the plan spanned 165 pages.

Logistics affect several aspects of operational art—the arrangement of discrete tactical actions in time, space, and purpose to achieve strategic goals. These aspects include operational reach, phasing and transitions, tempo, and culmination.

In other words, logistics influences how far a military can ra…

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Early during the Cold War, U.S. military planners and policymakers realized that the massed armies of the Soviet Union and China dwarfed what we could muster. Even fighting coalition-style fights, America and its allies faced overwhelming odds in its adversaries.

For example, during the Korean War the United States deployed about 1.8 million servicemembers to the Peninsula during the three years of fighting, with up to about 327,000 at any one time. South Koreans contributed about 1.3 million soldiers with about half of that serving in combat at any given time and about half of that total dying in combat. Other allies like the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and Turkey made troop contributions totaling around 164,000. At peak strength, the U.N. force comprised nearly a million military members.

The Chinese-Soviet-North Korean forces peaked at about 1.7 million—mostly Chinese.

I…

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The United States and Israel continue their campaign of stand-off attacks against Iran—burning through roughly $2 billion per day in munitions.

Early reports this morning suggest that the attacks may have wounded Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, although the extent of his injuries remains unclear.

Yet, despite the strikes, Iranians are rallying around their regime.

That means this war may be entering a much longer—and more economically disruptive—phase.

As a result, the world is experiencing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, pushing oil prices back toward $100 per barrel. President Trump has tried to claim this as a good thing, despite Americans now paying 24% more at the pump than a month ago, Russia capturing billions in windfall revenue, and rising concerns about global food supplies.

And that pain isn’t going away any time soon.

What we’re seeing in this war is something deeper than a regional conflict.

It’s the collisio…

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For nearly twenty years, the United States fought wars under conditions of near-total air supremacy.

Neither Afghanistan’s Taliban regime nor Iraq’s Baathist regime were capable of fielding significant resistance in the opening stages of those two campaigns as America established control of the skies. Insurgents in those two countries had no real aircraft and drones had not yet proliferated to democratize air power.

That began changing somewhere around the middle of last decade.

DJI introduced the world’s first wide-market consumer drone, the Phantom at CES in 2013.

And that changed everything.

The defense industry began pursuing small, loitering munitions.

By October, drone operators were buzzing world leaders with the drones. These were relatively benign, but demonstrated that the tech could be coopted and weaponized for attacks.

Terror groups in the Middle East seized on the technologies quickly. Lebanese Hezbollah—which h…

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Here’re the three major things we’re watching going into the weekend: Pentagon v. Anthropic, Wars in the Middle East, and China’s purges.

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We’re watching three major things going into this weekend: Trump v. Iran, Anduril’s hypervaluation, and Onodrim Industries’ mega seed round.

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Over the past year, the world has taken a turn towards a darker, less optimistic place. We’ve seen U.S. military intervention skyrocket, with major operations against Iran, Yemen, and Venezuela. Other military activities have flown under the radar in Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, and elsewhere. Some of these were ongoing before the current administration; regardless, there’s been an uptick in military activity.

We’ve seen the deliberate attack on existing alliances and partnerships, stressing them to near breaking points. Admittedly, some believe that this stress-testing can serve to strengthen those same alliances and partnerships, but that is yet to be seen. And certainly, more people believe that the stress-testing is deleterious.

All of that brings us to a point where we are at perhaps the riskiest moment we’ve been in decades.

And people are growing increasingly pessimistic.

Nearly half of all Americans, half of all Brits, half of all French, and half of all Cana…

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It’s been a busy week in defense (and dual-use) tech—particularly around funding.

We love seeing weeks like this, showing that capital is flowing into companies trying to solve hard problems. This week saw announcements of nearly $1.2B in venture funding across 10 deals. It also saw three companies announce upcoming IPOs including a Ukrainian drone swarm company, nearly $1.3B in raised funds for PE and VC firms, and an announcement that two of Canada’s largest funds are looking to sell their $13.6B position in a British critical infrastructure operator.

Other exciting developments this week include the Pentagon announcing its appointments to lead the six critical technology efforts, the release of guidance on defending critical infrastructure from drone attacks, Raytheon stepping up to the plate following pressure from the administration on production rates, and more.

On the flip-side, additional evidence of the growing solidarity in the Axis of Autocracy continues to em…

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Buckle up friends, we have a lot of ground to cover.

Table of Contents

1. Grading the National Defense Strategy

2. Revitalizing the Defense Industrial Base

3. Defense Company Earnings

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The southern U.S. is bracing for the worst snow and ice storm its experienced in years—with states of emergency declared from Texas to Virginia. The World Economic Forum at Davos has been nothing short of trainwreck style entertainment with ridiculous barbs traded between the American delegation (namely President Trump and SecCommerce Lutnick) and European allies. These exchanges have highlighted the damage that the administration has caused to relationships with other countries over its aggressive and antagonistic policies, including over Greenland.

President Trump has finally calmed down about Greenland a bit. After advisors talked him off the ledge over using military force to seize the island, NATO Secretary General and former Dutch PM Mark Rutte has proposed a framework for a deal that seems to have temporarily mollified Trump. Of course, as seems to happen with these sorts of deals involving the United States this year, conversations have excluded key stakeholder…

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Together, they examine where the money is likely to go, whether the increase is strategically justified, and how fiscal realities, industrial capacity, and emerging warfare trends should shape U.S. defense spending decisions.

🔑 Key Topics & Takeaways

🏛️ 1. The $1.5 Trillion Question: How the announcement is not yet a formal budget request and what signals suggest about priorities spending areas

🛡️ 2. Golden Dome: Missile Defense at Scale: Cost creep and its impact regardless of feasibility

🚢 3. The “Golden Fleet” and the Return of the Battleship: Why large, exquisite platforms are increasingly vulnerable

🫥 4. The Transparent Battlefield and how it is shaping the future of warfare

🌍 5. NATO, GDP, and the Hague Investment Plan: Clarifying NATO’s 5% of GDP target under the Hague Investment Plan

💰 6. Debt, Taxes, and Strategic Tradeoffs: Pretend-and-Spend vs. Pay-as-you-Go

⚙️ 7. Reading the Tealeaves and Macrotrends: What the Future Force Actually Needs:

🧠 8. Hope, Momentum, and the Way Forward: Positive signals from recent DoD innovation and AI strategy efforts

The Future Force Report is a production of Building Our Future.

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Intro / outro music: Experimental Cinematic Hip Hop by ⁠Rockot⁠.

Cover art created with OpenAI’s Dall-E 3 model.

Brooke Fallon is an AI host created using ElevenLabs’ Eleven Turbo v2. Andrew Glenn is not an AI, but a very real person.

This week, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth did something commendable, releasing a new military AI strategy that seeks to unleash the department to achieve speed and scale in innovation and adoption of military AI. He also released several other policies around the innovation ecosystem, that we fully support. It’s nice to be able to write something positive about the Secretary, once in a while.

Taken together, these three documents signal a decisive shift in how the Department of War intends to fight, build, and innovate in an era defined by artificial intelligence. AI is no longer treated as a supporting technology or experimental enabler—it is positioned as a core warfighting capability, embedded across operational decision-making, intelligence, logistics, and enterprise functions. The strategy emphasizes speed, scale, and competitive urgency, explicitly framing AI as a domain of strategic co…

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Lev Davidovich Trotsky—better known as Leon Trotsky—was Vladimir Lenin’s right-hand man and heir-apparent during the Russian revolution (until Stalin succeeded in marginalizing Trotsky, but that’s a story for another day).

While serving as the People's Commissar for Military and Naval Affairs of the Soviet Union (a position roughly comparable to Minister of Defense), Trotsky is often quoted as observing that 'you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.'1

This observation is just as prescient today as it was during the first half of the 20th century.

It doesn’t matter if you’re a soldier, a human rights advocate, an economist, a financier, a manufacturer, or a farmer. War affects us all. This is certainly the case in wars close to our homes or in which we’re active participants. But it remains true even when a war is seemingly removed by geography or participation.

Wars interrupt supply chains

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Rather than debating strategy or legality, this episode focuses squarely on how the operation was executed and what it reveals about the future of warfare, defense technology, and force design.

From suppression of enemy air defenses and electronic warfare, to the compression of the kill chain and the growing role of AI in military decision-making, this conversation explores how time, information, and coordination are becoming decisive weapons on the modern battlefield.

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The Future Force Report is a production of Building Our Future.

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Intro / outro music: Experimental Cinematic Hip Hop by ⁠Rockot⁠.

Cover art created with OpenAI's Dall-E 3 model.

Brooke Fallon is a fictional host created using ElevenLabs' Eleven Turbo v2.

This is our last planned edition for 2025. It’s been a wild ride of a year and the team has earned a short break.

Some of the crazy things we’ve covered this year:

• Why Trump is salivating over Greenland

• Some of the Biden admin’s contributions to Defense Tech

• Finding the balance of naval warships and autonomous platforms

• How Defense Tech startups can win in the industry

• China’s advances in electromagnetic warfare, and why that should keep you up at night

• The growth of cognitive warfare

• The Indo-Pakistani war and what it said about defense technology

• How defending Taiwan will differ from defending Europe

• The emerging bifurcation in requirements: we need both exquisite platforms and affordable mass

• The five frontiers of future warfare and the six techs that the Pentagon is betting on

• The phenomenology of war and why trying to prevent it could lead to the biggest one yet

• And, of course, the absolute clown show that SecDef Hegseth has put on in his first year in office

Thank you for all …

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