Buckle Up: The Era of Great Power Competition is Here to Stay
How rising powers will create a new world order
As we move deeper into the 21st century, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: we’re in for a long ride of great power competition and potentially conflict.
In recent memory, we’ve enjoyed the relative stability of a bipolar system during the Cold War and the rapid progress of Pax Americana—the period of American global hegemony. These eras are fading into the rearview mirror, replaced by an intense and complex rivalry between the United States, China, Russia, and rising powers such as India, Brazil, the EU, and others. Unfortunately, multipolar systems tend to be less stable, more likely to lead to large wars, and longer lasting.
It’s tempting to hope for a quick resolution or a return to simpler times, but let’s be real—this is going to take a while. The dynamics of this new age aren’t just geopolitical posturing; they’re shaping our economies, our technologies, and even our daily lives.
What are the Elements of Power?
At the heart of this competition are the elements of national power, often summarized as DIME: Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic power. Each nation wields these elements to varying degrees of success:
Diplomatic Power: The ability to influence others through negotiation, alliances, and international relations. Nations use diplomacy to build coalitions, resolve conflicts, and project influence globally.
Information Power: Control over the flow of information and the ability to influence global narratives. This includes both the dissemination of propaganda and the strategic use of information technology.
Military Power: The use of armed forces to protect national interests, project power, and deter adversaries. Military strength remains a crucial component in this era, with significant investments in technology and capability.
Economic Power: The ability to leverage economic strength, including trade, sanctions, and economic aid, to influence other nations. A strong economy underpins all other elements of power and can be a decisive factor in global competition.
These elements are the tools of statecraft, and how effectively each nation employs them will determine its standing in this new world order. It will also determine the rising powers’ success in breaking into the great power competition role.
Who are the Rising Powers?
As already mentioned, the United States and China are clearly dominant. Russia sees itself as a ‘Great Power’ still, but evidence suggests they increasingly rely on China for assistance. Iran is a regional power that could grow into a greater power, although, I’m not sure that’s very likely. The fracturing of the world order of the past thirty years may see the following entrants into the club of “great powers” over the coming decades:
India: With its rapidly growing economy, large population, and increasing military capabilities, India is poised to become a major global power. Its strategic location and active role in regional alliances like the Quad further enhance its influence.
European Union: While not a single nation, the EU could assert itself as a unified global power, especially in areas like trade, climate policy, and digital regulation.
Brazil: As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil has the potential to play a more prominent role in global affairs, particularly in terms of resources, agriculture, and regional leadership.
Indonesia: With its strategic location, large population, and growing economy, Indonesia could rise as a key player in Southeast Asia and on the global stage.
Nigeria: As Africa’s largest economy and most populous country, Nigeria has the potential to become a leading voice in Africa and an emerging global power, particularly as it continues to develop its economy and infrastructure.
We are transitioning from a unipolar to a more multipolar world, with the rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the potential emergence of other powers like India. This shift suggests that we may be entering a new period of prolonged great power competition, which, based on historical precedent, could last several decades.
So what does this mean for us?
First and foremost, it’s a reminder to stay vigilant. The strategies and decisions made in Washington, Beijing, Moscow, Delhi, Brussels, and elsewhere will ripple across the globe, affecting everything from trade policies to military alliances.
This competition will likely exist for several decades. Multipolar systems tend to last longer than bipolar or unipolar ones. The Congress of Vienna created a European multipolar system that last roughly 100 years, until the outbreak of the First World War. This stability was designed by the Congress and resulted from an intentional balancing of power. In contrast to the relative long duration of multipolar world orders, the bipolarity of the Cold War lasted fewer than 50 years and Pax Americana has lasted only ~30 years. The Congress of Vienna also offers valuable lessons for today, especially that one nation alone cannot counterbalance the others. We will need allies and partners.
Next, it’s likely that the United States will remain the most powerful of the great powers at least over the next decade. Beyond that, there are too many variables to account for (kind of like how weather forecasts remain only good for ~8 days, as explained by Chaos Theory). We can maintain our strength through intelligent investment in defense capabilities (both high-end exquisite systems as well as low-cost attritable ones), continuing economic policies that strengthen the American base (reshoring / friendshoring manufacturing, restoring infrastructure, leveraging competitive edges in software, etc), regaining control over information systems messaging our vision of progress (the one that glamorizes hardwork and industry more than influencer status domestically and that sees a rising tide lifting all boats internationally), and smart diplomacy that doesn’t just talk-the-talk, but walks-the-walk.
Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom. This period of competition also brings opportunities—opportunities for innovation, for forging new alliances, and for rethinking old strategies. The key will be to stay adaptable, to keep our eyes on the long-term game, and to understand that in this new world, nothing is set in stone.
In the coming years, we’ll see shifting power balances, unexpected alliances, and probably more than a few surprises. It’s going to be a marathon, not a sprint. So, buckle up, stay informed, and get ready for the long ride ahead. This journey is just beginning, and it’s one we can’t afford to sit out. What we invest in today will decide our future.
Keep building,
Andrew