Can America get back to the Moon before China?

Space Technologies

Oct 23, 2024

Good morning,

This week, China released its roadmap through 2050 for space. The roadmap is certainly aspirational, seeking to explore the origin and evolution of the universe, uncovering the nature of gravity and space-time, exploring for habitable exoplanets, and searching for extra-terrestrial life. The roadmap is broken up into three stages, the first covering three years, the second covering seven years, and the final stage covering the remaining 15 years.

Their goals for space exploration include a manned Martian mission early in the second stage and—more importantly—the language in the roadmap suggests that China will attempt a manned Lunar landing by 2027. If there's been any doubt, 2027 is an important year for the country, marking the 100th anniversary of the creation of the People's Liberation Army. And that year is thrown around A LOT as a benchmark for a China wanting to have modernized its military sufficiently to recapture Taiwan. While there is a theory that Xi was less intent on reunification with Taiwan by 2027 before the West talked about it extensively, there's no doubt that China is aggressively seeking to coerce the island Nation to return 'to the fold.' Nevertheless, a Chinese manned mission to the Moon could be a significant PR win for the PRC (see what we did there?).

The U.S. planned lunar mission Artemis, which uses the Space Launch System or SLS, is already behind schedule and over budget. The program is already well over $10B over budget. We’ve seen multiple delays totally more than seven years. This week's Government Accountability Office report casts further doubt on the program's ability to meet its timelines.

So, we have a competition for prestige between a country’s national space program that hasn’t landed humans on the Moon in 42 years and is demonstrating remarkable incompetence in managing the contracts to get us back there and another country’s national space program that repeatedly demonstrates an aggressive approach to building things but hasn’t ever put a human on the Moon and whose economic forecasts look a bit bleak. Just like the presidential election, it’s really too close to call at this point. But we’d love to see three things: 1) a private company win the race, 2) NASA consider a DIU-like structure to help accelerate tech adoption, and 3) the government get tougher with their failed contractors.

Speaking of failed contractors, Boeing is in the news again. A Boeing-designed satellite operated by Intelsat failed this week. Intelsat lost control of the satellite which then ‘blew up’ into at least 20 or more pieces large enough to be tracked from Earth.

Time to blast off!

News Headlines:

U.S. investigates unauthorized release of classified document on Israel's Iran attack plan (AP)
A drone targets the Israeli [prime minister's house during new barrages with Hezbollah (AP)
Space Force is having to track new debris field after Boeing-made satellite breaks apart (GIZ)
China holds live-fire drills opposite Taiwan, a week after large-scale exercise (AP)

Satellites:

Launches:

Upcoming Launches:

Space News:

China releases road map to become world leader in space through 2050 (SCMP)
Updated DoD space policy adds 'offensive' space operations to SPACECOM's responsibilities (BD)
France and Germany join U.S. led space defense coalition (SN)
Estonia joins Artemis Accords (SP)
Ground systems could delay Artemis 2 launch (SN)
Turkey allocates $161M for space exploration in 2025 (TT)
Space Force to increase spending on low Earth orbit satellite services (SN)
Intelsat 33e breaks up in geostationary orbit (SN)
SpaceX wins new launches; USSF continues pressing for competition (ASF)
Musk: Next-gen Starlink satellites so big only Starship can launch them (TB)
Space Force allocates $35M for nuclear microreactors for space propulsion (INN)
Army's space tech roadmap emphasizes secure navigation, satcom, intelligence (SN)
SpaceX sued California for political bias in regulatory decisions (RT)
Army grapples with increased demand for space capabilities, personnel (DS)
Taiwan taps satellite hookups to help down invading drones (DN)
Space Force refining commercial backup plan for military satellites (SN)
Prada is teaming up with Axiom space to design spacesuits for NASA's moon mission (RT) 
Army about to formalize 'micro-high altitude balloons' as a new requirement for surveillance ops (BD)
Biden admin eases export restrictions on commercial space tech to allies (RT)
Michael Bloomberg may be jockeying for the role of NASA administrator in a Harris admin (SD)
AI in orbit is increasingly popular model, Aptos Orbital unveils its newest AI-powered satellite platform (PL)
Firefly to launch True Anomaly's Jackal vehicle for VICTUS HAZE mission (SN)
JAXA awards ArkEdge Space a contract to explore building a PNT constellation in LEO (SN)
Astroport and Orbit Fab team up for lunar exploration infrastructure (SN)
ESA orders six satellites from Thales Alenia Space and 15 satellites from Argotech for the Italian Earth Observation IRIDE constellation (VS)
Ispace unveils lunar relay satellites Alpine, Lupine for the CP-12 lunar lander mission on the far-side of the Moon (AWN)
Japan, NASA plan to launch first wooden satellite, Lignosat (WEF)
Sierra Space wins NASA contract to advance space trash compaction system (SD)
Czech-Luxembourgish VC firm Tensor Ventures is raising a €50M fund for space tech and CEE companies (TR)

Deal Flow:

AI-powered wildfire detection startup OroraTech raised a $27.5M Series B led by Korys (SN)
Indian satellite platform XDLINX raised a $7M seed round led by Lucky Investments (PU)
Wyvern raises $6M led by Squadra to bring their hyperspectral imaging to U.S. commercial and defense markets (TC)

Opportunities

Nord Universitet in Bodoe Norway will host Hackathon for Space 25 to create practical strategies for managing space debris in February for students passionate about space, tech, or sustainability; they'll also provide up to $500 for travel / accommodation (TEK)