Close to the Edge
Reflections on the provocative drone attack in Jordan
Yesterday morning, many of us woke up to the news that a drone attack in Jordan killed 3 American service members and injured many more.
Outrage is understandable. As a country, we have demonstrated incredible restraint towards Iran for decades, in the face of continuous provocation. Heck, we even tried to warn Iran about the impending ISIS attack earlier this month. Of course, Iranian-US relations are far more complex than “we’re magnanimous and they’re assholes,” but I will reiterate that we’ve demonstrated incredible restraint in our dealings with them.
Reactions across the DefenseTech ecosystem have ranged from “proof that the DOD needs to buy my directed energy drone swarm widget” to “every politician and policy maker should be required to enlist their children into the military.”
Generally, there’s a sense that this attack demonstrates needed reform in the acquisitions processes.
I understand that sense. But I’m not sure that’s the key take away from this attack.
In 2020, I was in the Middle East when Iran launched 12 ballistic missiles at Al-Asad airbase in Iraq. I don’t think most of us realize how close to the precipice of war we were during that event. I led some of the crisis response planning following that event. I suspect that had a single American been killed by those missiles, we would have responded with an overwhelming demonstration of military force.
Now Americans have died. But the question of attribution matters. For its part, Iran has distanced itself from these attacks—perhaps intuiting what lies in store for them once we connect the threads that prove their complicity or responsibility. President Biden has vowed to respond.
I guess what I’m saying is that the key take away isn’t about Defense Technology at all. We know that counter drone measures trail drone technology developments and proliferation. Nothing new there. Instead, the key take away is more that we’re far closer to active armed conflict than we realize.
Keep building,
Andrew