Everything you know about national power is wrong

Defense and dual-use technologies

Good morning!

For decades, America has been celebrated not just for its military might but for its ability to charm the world—using culture, diplomacy, and generosity as tools of influence.

Yet today, that tradition is being challenged by a dramatic shift toward the raw, unyielding force of hard power.

Consider the recent actions: the freezing of all foreign aid, a move that starkly contrasts with the long-held belief in American benevolence. This isn’t the America of soft power that built alliances through shared values and cultural affinity; it’s an America ready to leverage coercion and threat to achieve its aims.

But here's what everyone misses: while hard power may secure short-term victories, the long-run effects of sidelining soft power could reshape global alliances—and not in America’s favor.

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The Rise of Hard Power

Leaders like the President and many of his appointees seem to believe that the effective use of force and threat is all that matters, ignoring the intricate web of attraction and influence that once made U.S. engagement so potent.

Across multiple fronts, this shift is evident. Elon Musk’s appointment as a special assistant to the President—tasked with leading the Department of Government Efficiency—includes bold plans to shut down USAID, an agency long associated with American humanitarian efforts. Musk’s harsh labeling of USAID as an “evil” and “criminal” organization underscores a growing disdain for what some see as outdated methods of soft power, as well as the reality of much-needed reform to control fraud, waste, and abuse and runaway government spending.

Meanwhile, the imposition of sweeping tariffs and even the threat of further economic sanctions against close trade partners like Canada and Mexico reveal a preference for aggressive economic measures over diplomatic negotiations. And the provocative steps towards establishing an “Iron Dome for America,” complete with plans for space-based interceptors, speak volumes about a policy geared more towards deterrence and military posturing than to mutual cooperation.

Some of the most striking signs of this hard-power pivot come from the highest levels of policy formulation.

Recent threats have sought not only to reshape international trade dynamics but also to consider the use of military or economic force to seize strategic assets such as Greenland and the Panama Canal. These moves exemplify an administration that views power in stark, uncompromising terms—one where coercion seems to trump (no pun intended) the soft power that once underpinned American influence.

Yet, this new approach comes at a cost.

Joseph Nye, the former Assistant Secretary of Defense and scholar who popularized the term “soft power,” has warned that while coercion might win battles, it rarely wins hearts—and in the long run, that can be far more damaging.

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Soft Power

Soft power is about getting what you want by drawing others in with shared values and cultural appeal. As Nye noted, “Trump does not understand soft power—the ability to get what you want by using attraction rather than coercion or payment. In the short term, hard power usually trumps soft power, but the long-run effects may be the opposite.”

A pithy comparison of hard and soft powers

But soft power carries its own problems. First and foremost, what starts as attraction and influence can create a sense of entitlement and dependency in soft power targets. This, in turn, can lead to resentment and frustration. And to be clear, the United States’ efforts at Global Meliorism have met with mixed success:

• The Marshall Plan stands as a smashing success.

• Nation-building efforts in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan have largely been seen as disasters.

• In the Balkans, American efforts have maintained peace, though critics point to a failure to intervene during the Rwandan genocide as evidence of a problematic double standard.

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Decisions, decisions

Today, America faces a critical juncture.

On one hand, the tangible benefits of hard power are immediately apparent: sanctions, tariffs, and a robust military posture can deliver quick wins and assert dominance. The President can claim hard power victories such as his threats to Panama leading to Panamanian withdrawal from China’s Belt and Roads Initiative (regardless of Panama’s claims that coercion had no part in its decision) or his threats of tariffs leading Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum to announce a surge of 10,000 Mexican troops to the border to stop the flow of drugs and migrants (regardless of whether this surge was already planned).

On the other hand, the erosion of soft power risks isolating the nation from the very networks and alliances that have long underwritten its global leadership. The world is watching as a nation shifts from being an attractive partner to a coercive force, and the long-term consequences could undermine decades of diplomatic goodwill. And, at the same time, our adversaries are moving to fill the void left by American retrenchment. China and Russia appear all too eager to wield soft power in Africa and elsewhere. And China has embarked on a number of goodwill tours, seeking to change global perceptions of the country.

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So where does that leave us?

The answer may lie in finding a strategic balance. While there is no denying that hard power is sometimes necessary, abandoning soft power altogether might be a short-sighted strategy.

America's global influence has always rested on a blend of both—using military might when required, but also engaging through cultural, economic, and diplomatic means to build lasting relationships. This idea has come to be known as smart power.

Ultimately, the debate over hard versus soft power isn’t just an academic exercise—it’s a question of what kind of leadership America wants to project on the world stage.

As the nation grapples with this shift, readers are left to wonder: Can America reinvent its strategy to harness both the immediacy of hard power and the enduring appeal of soft power, or will its current path lead to a future marked by isolation and diminished influence?

Perhaps if the federal government doesn’t think it should be in the business of soft power, then various industries can pick up the baton. Let’s continue to build the absolute best technology. Let’s create and export amazing games that highlight American values. Let’s invest in the entertainment industry. Let’s put money into both hardtech and softer elements that complement the elements of our national power.

Which approach do you believe will better secure America’s long-term global standing—the raw force of hard power, or the enduring attraction of soft power? Share your thoughts and join the conversation.

For now, though, let’s just get into the news.

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News Headlines

• Pentagon ejects more reporters from press room to make space for more friendly outlets (AP)

• Congress began work this week on annual defense authorization bill (MT)

• Explosive-laden goggles sent to Russian FPV drone operators (TWZ)

• Hegseth directs pause on Dept of the Air Force's reorganization efforts (DS)

• China says U.S. naval patrol of Taiwan Strait poses security risk (AlJ)

• Chinese fighter harassed Australian surveillance aircraft over South China Sea (NI)

• Paparo: China is rehearsing for war (DO)

• U.S. aircraft carrier U.S.S. Truman collides with large merchant vessel in Med (NI)

• State Department was set to buy $400M worth of armored Tesla cybertrucks — administration now claims no intent to go through with purchase (NPR)

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Defense & Dual-Use Technologies 

• DIU launches Defense Tech Accelerator in Seattle area to help startups navigate DoD complexities (GW)

• Congressman Wittman (R-VA) 'positive' U.S. can maintain power balance between China, Russia (NI)

• House lawmakers get first briefing on CYBERCOM 2.0 model (DS)

• Air Force has halted work on parts of its ICBM program (DO)

• Pacific Air Forces new cyber directorate prepares for great power competition (S&S)

• U.S. could bolster missile defense with new sensors within a year: NORTHCOM (NI)

• In-Q-Tel: Promising biotech startups 'dying on the vine' (BD)

• Microsoft hands off IVAS effort to Anduril; Palmer Luckey gets his cold-served revenge on Zuckerberg for firing him from Oculus following Meta's acquisition of his former company (DN)

• Boom Aerospace used science to remove the boom from supersonic travel (PRN)

Threat Tech

• Chinese tank's active protection system seen intercepting drone-fired RPG (TWZ)

• Russia overtakes all of Europe on defense spending in key metric: IISS military balance (BD)

• Russia is methodically taking over the African Sahel (TAR)

• U.S. cyber vulnerabilities fuel N. Korea's nuclear arsenal: DARPA (BD)

• CISA sidelines anti-disinformation staffers as DHS looks to steer away from fighting foreign influence (DO)

• TikTok returns to Apple, Google app stores in the U.S. (NBC)

• Trump wants nuclear arms talks with Russia, China (AP)

Foreign Defense Tech

• European defense tech VC funding surges to record $5.2B--10% of all European VC funding (FT)

• Global military leaders aim to unleash, control AI (DN)

• SECDEF: White House supportive of AUKUS, Australia makes $500M payment (NI)

• Israel completes next round of counter-drone testing with guns, interceptors (BD)

• Leonardo exec floats Eurofighter as stepstone for Saudi GCAP entrance (DN)

• Algeria says it's the first to receive Su-57 Felon export (TWZ)

• Rheinmetall delivers first Skyranger 30 Air Defense system to German army (OD)

Defense Industry

• With IVAS takeover, Anduril looks to build out human-machine ecosystem (DO)

• Japan orders 17x Boeing-made CH-47 Chinook helicopters (DN)

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Autonomous Systems 

• L3Harris unveils Amorphous autonomy software to manage drone swarms (DN)

• XDOWN has unveiled its hand-thrown, football-shaped drone munition (TDP)

• Heven Drones to unveil new hydrogen-powered, long range UAV at IDEX (BD)

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Finance & Deal Flow

Funds

• Founders Fund is about to close another $3B fund (TC)

• K2 Global chasing 'red, white, and blue' startups with first $200M AI fund (PB)

• Fulcrum Ventures Group snatches up former acting SecDef Chris Miller (DN)

VC

• AI-powered defense startup Anduril Industries is in talks to raise $2.5B at a doubled $28B valuation in a round led by Founders Fund (TC)

• EV aircraft startup Archer Aviation raised a $300M round from BlackRock, Wellington, and others (TC)

• Nuclear fuel startup Clean Core Thorium Energy raised a $15.5M seed round led by a Singaporean family office (ET)

• Natural hydrogen exploration startup Mantle8 raised a $3.5M seed round led by Kiko Ventures and Breakthrough Energy Ventures (EUS)

PE / M&A / Exits / Other

• Teledyne has completed the $710M acquisition of Excelitas' A&D electronics business (BW)

• Nordic Unmanned ASA is filing for bankruptcy (SU)

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Exciting Opportunities

• SOFWERX and SOCOM OSBP will host a Small Business Boot Camp collaboration event 11-13 March to help small businesses learn how to do business with SOCOM (SW)

• The Air Force is seeking a vendor to provide rocket-assisted take-off (RATO) rocket motors and initiators for its BQM-167 aerial target drone on a 5-year IDIQ (SAM)

• The Marine Corps is looking for vendors to demo tech for its mounted assured resilient navigation (SAM)

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Editor's Picks

• Former DUSD(Industrial Policy) and SVDG founder Bill Greenwalt and Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Dan Patt are fed up with promises for JCIDS reform. Now they want to burn it down!

• McKinsey has released a report on creating a modernized defense tech frontier.

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Lighter Side

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Keep Building,

BOF

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