Exitus in Dubio Est: Liberty in the Balance
Reflecting on the High Stakes of Liberty, Unity, and the Future of Our Nation
Good morning and Happy Early Independence Day!
This weekend, we commemorate the bold declaration of a free people—that liberty, democracy, and self-governance are worth risking everything for.
Our American forefathers laid everything on the line. Soldiers braved starvation, disease, and the bitter cold of Valley Forge. Colonial citizens endured economic collapse, violent reprisals, and the threat of displacement from their homes. Leaders—those who dared to sign their names to a document proclaiming independence—faced certain death if captured, the ruin of their property, and exile from the communities they helped build.
The nascent nation teetered between hope and collapse, but conviction burned brighter than fear. They did not know if their efforts would succeed—only that their cause was just.
And through war, through loss, through sacrifice, the ideals of liberty, justice, and equality endured.
Nearly 250 years later, we mark Independence Day in celebration of those very ideals—ideals we often speak of, but too rarely defend.
But anniversaries are not only for fireworks and flags. They are also for reflection—for reckoning.
This year, the stakes for those founding ideals could not be higher. Around the world—and here at home—democracy is under siege. The truth is contested. The rule of law is strained. And the promise of freedom feels, to many, less certain than ever.
As Benjamin Franklin warned: Exitus in dubio est. The outcome is in doubt.
Yet so it was in 1776. And so it remains today. The question is not whether liberty is at risk—it is whether we are still willing to defend it.
Critically, our Revolutionary forebears banded together and placed being “American” above being a New Yorker or Virginian.
Liberty can neither be won nor preserved in isolation.
We must work to bring our nation back together, to heal it from the fragmentation that we’ve suffered in the past half century. For America to be resilient, it must stand united, once more.
Let this Independence Day be more than a memory of what was. Let it be a renewal of what must be.
Because liberty is not inherited—it is chosen, claimed, and guarded by every generation. And freedom, once taken for granted, can be lost.
We must, keep building.
Alright, on to the news.
News Headlines
US manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth-straight month (BBG)
DOJ arrests two Chinese spies (AP)
House Republicans now expected to pass Trump's massive tax and policy bill today (NPR)
Jerome Powell could stay at the Fed after his term as chair ends, foiling Trump's efforts to nominate a 'shadow chair' to undermine Powell's leadership and policies (BBG)
The White House is now looking for excuses to investigate and fire Powell (BBG)
Musk apologizes for acting a fool, reverses course on empathy--but it all could be for political points (FUT)
'Made in America' might still be too expensive for customers (RT)
Defense & Dual-Use Technologies
The Pentagon's R&D budget provides insights into the future of warfare (DO)
Pentagon to test Mission Network-as-a-Service for comms with allies and partners (DO)
CYBERCOM seeks to nearly 6x its budget for IndoPacific defense (DS)
Budget seeks money for Air Force, Navy to start buying new AIM-260 air-to-air missile (TWZ)
DoD creating joint interagency counter-drone task force (DS)
Air force suspends plan to land cargo rockets on Johnston Atoll in Pacific (S&S)
Army begins design and build of new Multi-Domain Commands in IndoPacific (DN)
Army plans to spend ~$3B on next-gen command and control in FY26 (DS)
Threat Tech
Govini National Security Scorecard finds 1 in 10 "tier 1" subcontractors to defense primes are Chinese companies (BD)
Xi Jinping military purges continue as navy admiral ousted from Central Military Committee (TG)
German industrialist: 'E.U. might as well be province of China' due to reliance on imports (TG)
Iran may go after U.S. defense firms with cyber-attacks: DoD, DHS warn (BD)
Director of Central Intelligence Ratcliffe to Congress downplays risk of Iran's already enriched uranium, focuses on destruction of metal conversion capability, setting back Iran's nuclear ambitions 'for years' (AP)
Iran shuts out nuclear monitors in tactics that recall Cold War (MIL)
U.S. accuses N. Korea of providing cheap remote workers in scheme to make money for weapons programs (AP)
Foreign Defense Tech
European drone builders tinker with AI in navigation and targeting (DN)
Naval forces from 13 countries sail to the Black Sea for a sea-mine countermeasure exercise, as risk grows (NI)
Everyone wants Australia's new over-the-horizon 'super radar' (DJ)
Britain lays out battle plans to secure Atlantic against Russia (DJ)
France's Thales and Norway's Kongsberg create a communications joint venture (BD)
In wake of Operation Sindoor, India buys drones, air defense weapons (DN)
New missile defense, EW tactics aided Israel during its 12 day war with Iran (BD)
Japan shows off warship-installed rail gun (TWZ)
U.S. wants in on Norway's maritime-surveillance drone business (DN)
Poland launches its first SIGINT ship built by Saab (DJ)
Defense Industry
Castelion developing Blackbeard, a 'cheap' hypersonic missile for the Army (TWZ)
HII, C3 AI ink agreement to boost shipyard production using AI (BD)
RTX, Shield AI announce new partnership for drone, counterdrone tech (BD)
Autonomous Systems
DoD budget request goes hard on AI, autonomy (DO)
The Army is looking to buy two new types of autonomous rocket launchers (BD)
Army budget seeks $70M to buy more kamikaze drones (DS)
DARPA is adapting shipboard drone program to rapidly adopt field tech this year (BD)
Autonomous 'GARC' boat flips tow boat over in incident in California waters (NI)
Finance & Deal Flow
Funds
26North Partners, the investment platform led by Apollo co-founder Josh Harris, raised over $3B for a targeted $4B debut PE fund (BOI)
Kinetica, an Israeli defense and dual-use tech VC, is reportedly raising a $150M fund with support from Israeli generals, U.S. defense officials, and 8VC's Joe Lonsdale (CT)
VC
Commonwealth Fusion Systems raised an undisclosed amount--although likely around its previous $1.8B Series B--from Google (TC)
Tacta Systems raised $75M in a seed and Series A round backed by Matter Venture Partners, B Capital, America's Frontier Fund, and others (PRN)
Clearspeed raised a $60M Series D led by Align Private Capital to scale dual-use boive-based risk assessment technology (BW)
Sceye raised a $15M first tranche of a planned Series C round led by SoftBank for solar-powered airships operating in the stratosphere (PRN)
SR Robotics, a startup building underwater robots, raised $10M in funding from Vinci (EUS)
Omnisent, a startup using acoustic AI turning industrial noise into intelligence, raised a $3M pre-seed round led by Atlantic Labsm (TFN)
French startup Cosma which uses fleets of autonomous underwater drones and AI-driven mapping tools to map the ocean floor, raised a $2.9M found co-led by WIND and Ternel (EUS)
PE / M&A / Exits / Other
PE firms CVC and KKR and Abu Dhabi SWF ADIA are among parties weighing a bid for an up to 30% stake in portable power generator firm Aggreko, as owners TDR Capital and I Squared Capital explore a sale at an over $12B valuation (BBG)
KKR agreed to acquire British precision testing equipment and software maker Spectris for $5.6B, topping a prior offer from an Advent-led group by 6.3% (RT)
Aerospace supplier TransDigm Group agreed to acquire proximity sensor maker Simmonds Precision Products from defense contractor RTX for $765M in cash (PRN)
Debt
Skyways secures $5M debt facility to accelerate production of autonomous cargo drones for DoD (BW
Exciting Opportunities
The Army is looking for small aerial drones capable of operating in tight, indoor areas (SAM)
The Navy is calling for white papers on novel solutions for propulsion and power of naval aircraft (SAM)
After seeing how effective the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator was in destroying deep-buried targets in Iran, the Air Force is seeking sources that can help ramp up production (SAM)
Editor's Picks
King's College London's David Betz provides a chilling account of why there's an 87% chance of a civil war in Western Europe (or America) in the next 5 years and why there's a 60% chance of it spreading to engulf the entire region.
Kyle Gunn of Task & Purpose breaks down how Israel took apart Iran's air defenses from the inside to achieve near-immediate air supremacy.
Lighter Side
Keep Building,
BOF
It’s an exciting time, and I think things are moving in a direction of progress. Thanks for putting this together, there’s a lot of useful information and I’m subscribing to stay up to date. But back to your article, where do you see room for the most improvement? Supply chains, AI, manufacturing, etc. I.e. what concerns you the most that makes you say ‘exitus in dubio est’?