Defense- & Dual-Use Technologies Edition

Exponential Growth Systems and the Defense Risk of Falling Behind

Defense and dual-use texhnologies

Oct 25, 2024

Good morning,

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.
"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

This exchange from Hemingway's The Sun Also Rises captures how exponential systems progress. Technology development usually progresses in a very similar manner. Take AI for example. AI developed very gradually through from the 1930s through about 2010. It was marked by cycles of optimism broken-up with 'winters.' By the 2010s, progress looked marginal compared to where we started decades before. Then, BOOM! We hit a tipping point and things accelerated rapidly.

Mother Jones magazine published an article that calculated how long it would take to fill Lake Michigan on an exponential basis. The question posed was this: How long would it take to fill Lake Michigan if you started with an ounce of water and doubled it every 18 months?

The answer is that the lake would be completely filled after 85 years. But the interesting thing about it, from an exponential standpoint, is that almost all of the water volume expands in the last five years:

60 years — the bottom on the lake is somewhat damp
70 years — a few puddles
80 years — forty feet of water
85 years — completely full (roughly 500 feet in average depth)

We've heard for decades that Fusion energy is 5-10 years away. And maybe it is, but let's remember that it too has to go through the exponential progress of AI or filling up Lake Michigan.

I think we're seeing signs of quite a few defense-related technologies accelerating, suggesting that they're compounding in a similar way. It's hard to judge exactly where we are on the curve, but I will say that the risk of falling behind compounds as well. So, when former VP Dan Quayle raises his voice in concern that China is 'outpacing' the U.S., we should take the concern seriously. Their work on radar technologies can make approaching contested areas incredibly difficult. Their satellite development and proliferation challenges our lead in space communications, earth observation, and PNT. They're application of AI to the development of other weapons systems can help them jump start their position on that exponential curve.

In other words, we have to take seriously the risks of losing our technological leadership across all critical technologies. We have to build for our defense. We have to build for our future.

Now, let’s go!

News Headlines:

Key House Republican: US should consider 'direct military action' if N. Korean troops enter Ukraine (TH)

Turkey's Erdoǧan wants to join BRICS and be in the axis of autocracy (RT)
China boosts export controls on dual use items, state media says (RT)

Defense & Dual-Use Technologies

Defense-tech boom spawns wave of new European GPs (PB)
Raj Shah returns to DIU as Director, Joint Reserve Detachment (DIU)
Army eyes modernized, long-range systems to bolster aircraft survivability (DS)
Army looks to tailor TITAN intel system to certain units, theaters (DS)
New British air defense laser engages multiple targets at once with 100% success rate (GBR)
Military must improve acquisition to win future wars: admiral (DO)
Pentagon is accelerating hypersonic missile defense systems (WM)
Defense groups bet big on drone-destroying laser weapons (FT)

Threat Tech

Former VP Dan Quayle warns: China outpacing America in high-tech arms race (NW)
China's new radar detects F-22 stealth fighters using BeiDou satellite signals: Chinese scientists (EAT)
China conducts drills to push military comms tech to endure nuclear strikes (IE)
China claims to have used AI to develop an actual, working railgun (NI)
Ukraine intel: In exchange for troops, N. Korea is getting nuclear tech from Russia (UKI)
Russia continues relying on nuclear coercion (DN)

Foreign Defense Tech

Europe's tech gap is a major security problem: Wolfgang Ischinger (POL)
Israeli weapon seen in photos of Beirut airstrike appears to be a powerful smart bomb (AP)
India announces full support for private sector in taking lead in defense technology (PIB)
Germany, UK to sign pact on long-range weapons, sweeping defense ties (DN)
Project Convergence to test cargo drones and live logistics data (DO)

Defense Industry

Boeing is exploring asset sales to boost finances (YF)
GE Aerospace beats earnings estimates as well, but stock falls (BRN)
L3Harris, Palantir partner to advance defense tech (MW)
Leonardo demonstrates BriteStorm drone-mounted electronic warfare tech (TDP)
Northrop unveils flying data center for military intel (SN)
Saronic unveils largest unmanned vessel for Pentagon's counter-China program (TDP)

IAI unveils new lightweight, EW-resistant 'Teaser' guided missile (BD)
Australia to spend $4.7B for American-made SM-2 and SM-6 missiles (DN)
Somehow and despite its $1B fine, RTX still beat earnings estimates, boosts outlook (RT)

Autonomous Systems

Marines deploy 'Loyal Wingman' drone in Joint Force test (USNI)
Drone maker DJI sues Pentagon over Chinese military listing (RT)
The Army's 'most challenging' unmanned threat are Group 3 drones (BD)
College students beat Boeing in a battle to take down drones (WSJ)
Nasdaq-listed eVTOL company Lilium could face insolvency as the German state of Bavaria declines a €50M bail-out (AIN)
Honeywell, Merlin partner to advance military aircraft autonomy (AFTc)

Deal Flow:

General Catalyst raises $8B in global push, marking largest VC firm fundraise in more than 2 years (FT)
Tecum Equity makes $20M growth equity investment into precision-manufacturing company Kadon Precision and Aerospace (CB)
European defense electronics firm Thales will acquire Boeing’s surveillance unit Digital Receiver Technology (RT)
Sverica Capital Management makes a majority investment into Aerospace & Defense parts manufacturer Electronic Source Company (CB)

Opportunities

DoD initiative seeks to recruit Silicon Valley tech workers to join the reserves as officers (WSJ)
DARPA is seeking partners for its Trenton program to enable underwater 3D concrete printing (SAM)