Military Monday: Chinese balloons and Alien UFOs
13 February 2023
In the past week, the United States has shot down four objects over North America.
It started with a Chinese surveillance (read: spy) balloon that was first observed entering U.S. airspace over Alaska. It then flew over Canada before moving south over the continental United States.
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) tracked the balloon until it was safely off the coast of South Carolina before an F-22 Raptor—scrambled from Langley Air Force Base—shot the balloon down.
“Shoot it down”
There’s been a lot of criticism of the decision to wait until the balloon had passed over the United States before shooting it down on February 4th.
While concern about allowing an identified surveillance platform to fly over the country are valid, the reality is that the decision to wait was prudent.
The principal justification to wait was the sheer size of the object. The balloon portion was more than 60m (196ft). The surveillance equipment suspended beneath the balloon was the size of a small jetliner (around 25m or 82ft) and weighed at least 900kg (literally, a ton). The equipment could have crashed into the earth at speeds near or above 100mph (156 km/h). In other words, it would cause quite a bit of damage to whatever it hit.
But what about the fact that the spy balloon had already completed its mission by then? I’m not overly worried about that. The United States has sophisticated intercept and jamming capabilities that were likely applied to prevent the balloon from collecting or relaying any sensitive information.
An alien invasion
Since the downing of the the Chinese spy balloon last week, the U.S. Air Force has “decommissioned” (a euphemism for “shot down”) three more objects—each classified as “unidentified flying objects” or UFOs.
Nena, a German singer, famous for the 1983 anti-war song “99 Luftballons”
On February 10th, the U.S. Air Force shot down a UFO over the waters of Alaska. The White House has said that this object was the size of a small car. Obviously, this is much smaller than the balloon. A Department of Defense official has stated that this object was most likely not a balloon and that it broke into “pieces” after being shot down. NORAD tracked it beginning the night before, and at the time of the shoot-down, it had a bearing towards the North Pole.
On February 11th, the U.S. Air Force downed another object, this time over Canada’s Yukon Territory. A Canadian official has described this object as cylindrical and smaller than the spy balloon. NORAD tracked this object beginning the day before, as well, watching it pass over Alaska before Canada and the U.S. determined to down it.
“I ordered the take down of an unidentified object that violated Canadian airspace. @NORADCommand shot down the object over the Yukon. Canadian and U.S. aircraft were scrambled, and a U.S. F-22 successfully fired at the object.” -Canadian PM Justin Trudeau via Twitter
The following day saw yet another object shot down, over Lake Huron. This object originally appeared over Montana on Saturday, before disappearing. When it reappeared on Sunday, it was over Lake Huron and the Air Force shot it down. This object flew at a much lower altitude than the original Chinese spy balloon (20,000 ft instead of 60,000 ft), was octagonal, had strings / ropes / wires hanging from it, but had no visible payload.
The F-22 now has at least 1 balloon and 1 UFO air-to-air kills.
Whether these are of terrestrial or extraterrestrial origin (they’re terrestrial), doesn’t matter much. The fact is that we’re suddenly seeing a massive number. So where are they coming from? And why are we just now seeing them?
Uncertainty
To be honest, we don’t entirely know where these objects are coming from, yet. But, we do know that NORAD’s systems were originally built to detect Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) coming over the arctic. ICBMs travel at up to 15,000 mph (24,000 km/h). That’s incredibly fast and appears distinctive on radar. By contrast balloons—and these other objects—are travelling much more slowly. So, previous objects may have been filtered out as “noise” initially. Or, there may be a sudden uptick in the number flying, in an attempt to probe and test our defenses.
The most likely explanation is that China is attempting to determine U.S. vulnerabilities (some people compare Chinese Premier Xi Jinping to Winnie the Pooh)
Now, NORAD has recalibrated their equipment and is actively searching for smaller, slower, and higher-altitude objects. Hence, there’s a significant uptick in how many we’re seeing. It may be possible for NORAD to look at its historical data and find signatures that are consistent with this week’s objects going back years. That will be small comfort, however.
Interestingly, there was a massive spike in UFO reporting in 2022, with the government receiving several hundred reports of such objects. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a report in January on these UFOs, where it claimed to be able to classify about half of the objects. That still means that around 200 of these objects were inexplicable. Could those all be Chinese drones, balloons, and other objects to test our defenses?
“Isn’t this how the movie Signs began?” -overheard in office conversation
Some people are convinced that there are two things happening: one was the Chinese balloon, the other is the presence of extraterrestrial visits. They may claim last month’s report and the inexplicability of objects shot down this week as evidence of a government conspiracy. Don’t buy that hype; however fun it may be. Even if the commanding general of NORAD says:
“I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything.” -General Glen VanHerck
The reality is that this is a malign foreign actor probing our defenses and attempting to gather as much intelligence on us as possible. Claiming alien visits is, in a sense, an attempt to diminish the seriousness of the situation through reductio ad absurdum.
The very serious reality is that there malign countries out there that do not wish to see the west continue to lead the world towards liberal democratic principals. They may not declare war on us, but they will wage it on us.
How should we respond?
At this point in time, we are responding in the most appropriate way possible. We are defending our airspace—perhaps a bit belatedly. We are gathering information on the objects, to the extent we can. We are preparing evidence and ultimately intelligence that will inform future courses of action. Frustratingly, we must demonstrate strategic and operational patience. We must investigate and we must provide sufficient transparency to our population that we can reassure them against the fears that are growing.
Interestingly, China is now claiming, and without substantive evidence, that the United States is flying balloons in its airspace. U.S. officials deny that assertion.
And, it is imperative that we continue to support the liberal democratic principles across the globe and continue to invest in the capabilities and capacities to support and when necessary defend them. Any regime that will test the resolve of the West and our commitments to these values will face far greater strength than they can withstand.
Here’s a hint: it’s not the balloon.
And, we must, through it all…
Keep building!
Andrew