Navigating Turbulent Waters
Understanding the Houthi Threat and Global Chokepoints
This morning I’m going to deviate from my plan to continue discussing the revitalization of the Defense Industrial Base. I’ll return to that conversation later this week or next week.
Instead, I want to dive deeper into what’s happening in the Red Sea and at the tip of the Arab Peninsula.
This morning BP announced that it would pause all oil shipments through the Red Sea. BP's decision, made in response to attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi movement, underscores Yemen's tangled political dynamics and their profound impact on global maritime security. In this edition, we navigate the complexities between the Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG), the Southern Transition Council (STC), and the Houthi insurgents.
Yemen's Political Factions and Regional Alliances
Since Yemen's unification in 1990, the country has grappled with a tumultuous political landscape characterized by internal divisions, regional conflicts, and external interventions. The Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG) emerged following the union between North Yemen (the Yemen Arab Republic) and South Yemen (the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen); however, it struggled to reconcile the historical differences between the formerly separate entities, leading to political instability and social unrest.
In this fractured environment, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) emerged in 2017 as a separatist movement advocating for the secession of southern Yemen, aiming to restore the independence of the former South Yemen. The STC garnered support from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and aimed to address the grievances of the southern region, often clashing with the ROYG over political control and autonomy.
Meanwhile, the Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, began as a religious and political movement in the northwestern region of Yemen. Led by the Houthi family, the movement sought to address the marginalization of the Zaidi Shia community and criticized the government's policies. Over time, the Houthi movement evolved into a formidable force, expanding its influence and consolidating power, particularly after seizing control of Yemen's capital, Sana'a, in 2014. The Houthis capitalized on widespread discontent with the ROYG's governance, forming alliances with segments of the military and exploiting the political vacuum to assert control over significant territories in Yemen. With ideological and material support from Iran, the Houthis gained prominence and became a dominant player in Yemen's complex conflict landscape, escalating tensions and triggering external interventions in the region.
Saudi Arabia has long backed the ROYG, with its support stemming from historical ties and strategic interests in maintaining a unified Yemen. Riyadh views the ROYG as a bulwark against regional instability and Iranian influence, aligning with the ROYG to counter the Houthi insurgency and preserve Yemen's territorial integrity. Conversely, the UAE has thrown its weight behind the STC, driven by a distinct geopolitical agenda. The UAE perceives the STC as a partner that aligns with its regional interests, including securing control over key strategic locations, safeguarding trade routes, and countering Islamist extremism. This dichotomy in Saudi Arabia's support for the ROYG and the UAE's backing of the STC has fueled competition and diverging agendas, intensifying the multifaceted conflict in Yemen and contributing to broader geopolitical tensions in the region.
Caught between these two key partners (Saudi Arabia and the UAE), is the United States, the United Kingdom, and other allies. For various reasons, we (the United States) chose to support Saudi Arabia and back the ROYG.
Containing the Houthis in Yemen
The STC has emerged as a proactive force in resisting and containing the Houthi insurgency, particularly in southern Yemen. With a focus on safeguarding strategic territories and countering Houthi advances, the STC has shown remarkable resilience and determination. Utilizing a combination of military prowess and local support, the STC has actively engaged in defending key areas, fortifying its positions, and confronting Houthi incursions. Their efforts have been marked by effective territorial control and governance, aiming to secure southern Yemen against the Houthi threat. The STC's proactive stance in countering the Houthis has positioned them as a formidable actor in Yemen's conflict landscape, influencing regional dynamics and contributing to the broader geopolitical complexities in the region.
As Saudi Arabia (and by extension its proxy in the ROYG) looks to reinstate a precarious truce with the Houthis, the STC remains concerned that such a truce will fail. Instead, they want to continue to work to safeguard southern Yemen from the Houthis. In fact, last week, the STC announced a desire to work with Israel against the Iranian-backed group.
The Red Sea
The Red Sea stands as a linchpin of global commerce, serving as a pivotal maritime trade route that facilitates the transportation of essential commodities, notably oil, between the Middle East and international markets. This strategic waterway plays a vital role in the global energy supply chain, enabling the transportation of substantial volumes of oil and other goods. According to the EIA, about 12% of worldwide oil shipping passes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea. About 8% of the world’s shipped LNG passes through.
However, the heightened threat posed by Houthi attacks on commercial vessels navigating the Red Sea has cast a shadow over its security. These assaults disrupt commercial activities, particularly oil shipments, significantly impacting not only the shipping industry but also reverberating across global oil markets. The Houthi-initiated disturbances pose immediate economic repercussions, causing disruptions in trade flows and increasing uncertainties, and already spiking oil prices and impacting the stability of global energy markets.
The persistent threat to the Red Sea's security from Houthi attacks presents a looming specter of prolonged disruptions, potentially causing severe and long-term repercussions for international trade networks and economic stability. Continual assaults on commercial shipping in the region jeopardize the reliability of this critical trade artery. Should the security of the Red Sea remain compromised due to persistent Houthi threats, businesses operating in the region may face mounting challenges, including increased insurance costs, rerouting of shipping lanes, and heightened operational risks. These cumulative effects could contribute to a substantial economic strain on global trade, raising concerns about the stability of vital supply chains and underscoring the imperative need for securing this essential maritime route.
It’s worth remembering the impact that the Evergreen Ever Given ship had on global logistics and supply chains, when it ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking shipping through the Red Sea.
The reality is that the Bab al-Mandab represents a global strategic chokepoint and as Sir Walter Raleigh reminded us years ago, “…. for whosoever commands the sea, commands the trade, whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the reaches of the world and consequently the world itself.” The Houthis have realized this and are attempting to hold the world ransom by attacking commercial targets in the BaM and the Red Sea.
“…. for whosoever commands the sea, commands the trade, whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the reaches of the world and consequently the world itself”
Safeguarding the BaM and Red Sea
The United States holds considerable influence and leverage in the region, and its strategic intervention could significantly impact the Houthis' activities in the Red Sea. One viable approach involves spearheading the establishment of a multinational naval task force dedicated to safeguarding commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea. By rallying international allies and partners, the U.S. could lead a coordinated effort to provide security escorts for merchant vessels, thereby deterring Houthi attacks and ensuring the safe passage of goods. This initiative would reinforce stability in the region, bolster confidence among commercial shipping operators, and demonstrate a unified international stance against maritime threats.
Additionally, extending support to the United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed Southern Transitional Council presents an opportunity to counter Houthi safe havens and diminish their military capabilities. Collaborative efforts between the U.S. and the STC could involve intelligence-sharing, logistical support, and targeted operations to degrade Houthi strongholds, limiting their operational reach and disrupting their ability to threaten maritime security.
To further curtail Houthi activities, increased interdiction measures in the Gulf of Aden could be employed to disrupt the flow of weapons and military supplies from Iran to the Houthis—often through Somali dhows. Enhanced surveillance and interdiction efforts, supported by international partners, could help stem the illicit flow of weapons and curtail the Houthis' military capabilities. Similarly, interdiction of overland trafficking routes can be achieved through close collaboration with and support for the government of Oman.
Moreover, the heightened employment of counter-Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) technologies could prove instrumental in neutralizing Houthi attack drones. The U.S. could deploy advanced counter-UAS systems to detect, track, and destroy Houthi drones, thereby mitigating their threat to commercial vessels and critical infrastructure in the Red Sea region. Additional air defense assets could be placed in the region to protect against ballistic missiles.
Conclusion
The intensification of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea zone necessitates a recalibration of international strategies and allegiances in Yemen. With the STC's demonstrated effectiveness against Houthi threats and the critical commercial significance of the Red Sea, punitive measures against the Houthi movement become imperative for ensuring maritime security.
A global realignment in support of factions actively combating threats to the Red Sea's stability and economic vitality emerges as a crucial step toward safeguarding this vital global artery.
Finally, we must be willing to provide necessary technological support through air defense systems, counter-drone systems, autonomous underwater vehicles, and other tech to safeguard commercial shipping in the area.
Keep building!
Andrew