New Ways to Fight
The Army envisions the battlefield of 2040
Good morning and Happy Monday!
Last week, the 4-star commander of the U.S. Army Futures Command, Gen. James Rainey, teased us with some revelations about the new Army Operating Concept.
This new concept should be released this fall in the “1.0 version.” (It’s gone through at least five draft iterations, each of which have had varying amounts of completeness and reviews associated with them).
The document is closely held, although not classified and will describe the trends that will characterize the battlefield of the future, the challenges that the U.S. Army (as part of the Joint Force) will likely face, and the central, organizing principals that the Army Futures Command believes will be critical for defeating a technologically advanced adversary.
The document will be important for several reasons.
First and foremost, it will set the framework for the Army to organize its units and structures, help prioritize technological investments (both R&D and procurement), and provide the intellectual basis for the education and training of leaders and soldiers.
As a very crude example, if the document says that we expect the warfare of 2040 to look identical to World War I, then we will prioritize conventional artillery systems and tanks in our procurement, we will educate soldiers on digging trenches and German Stoßtruppen tactics, and build a large divisional system.
If by contrast, the document describes a future where technological advancements allow an enemy to turn any landmass to lava, then we better be prioritizing hovercraft that can glide over said lava, investing in “metamaterial” technologies that allow us to turn the lava back to cooled, solid ground.
My point is, that the operating concept informs the way the Army organizes, trains, and equips the force. It’s an important document.
So what will it say? Those that know will remain tight-lipped about it until it is officially released. Nevertheless, I think we can look at the direction that technology is heading to have some ideas:
Artificial intelligence - already rapidly on the rise both in terms of autonomous systems and in terms of aggregating and making sense of data to inform decision-making (a decision support tool).
Sensors - I’ve dedicated an entire edition of this to the notion of the transparent battlefield. Everybody is racing to put satellites up into space that can observe the entire globe. Additionally, cheaper drones and cheaper sensors are seeing widespread deployment. This means that it will be harder to keep secrets.
Interconnected network - our networks are increasingly interdependent. Cyber warfare is already present, and will continue into the future. This includes our space-based communications capabilities, which are vulnerable.
Other developing technologies - Tech is moving rapidly in a broad range of areas including nuclear capabilities, supersonic / hypersonic propulsion, synthetic biology, and others. These each represent both risks and opportunities.
Understanding just these three realities frames a few possible futures. I would expect that the document will address each of these and develop an operating concept that hopefully mitigates the risks these pose and ethically leverages them to our advantage.
No matter what it says, when it is released, military leaders across the Army will be digesting it fully to understand the numerous implications for the force.
One final, closing though that captures an eternal truth from T.R. Fehrenbach
You may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, and wipe it clean of life - but if you desire to defend it, protect it, and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman Legions did - by putting your soldiers in the mud.
For now,
Keep building!
Andrew
Is this the new Army 3.0? Like the old FM 100-5?