Quantum Surprise is Coming

Defense leaders who assume a slow curve risk being flat-footed when sensing, comms, and computing leap forward.

Good morning,

You’ve probably heard the adage, “opinions are like assholes… everyone has one and they all stink.”

Well the world of quantum technology is no different. Everybody seems to have an opinion on quantum.

For some, it’s a world-transforming revolution coming in the next five years: zero-fault quantum computers breaking every encryption system on Earth, instant secure communications, entire battle networks re-wired by physics itself. For others, including respected voices in academia, industry, and the Pentagon, quantum is 25 years away (or more), and any discussion of near-term military impacts is just hype. Heck, Gil Kalai—a highly regarded mathematician and computer scientist—has made quantum-skepticism a cornerstone of his polemics for two decades, and his opinion is that quantum computing is flat impossible.

Both camps are wrong.

Quantum is not science fiction, and it’s not the far future. We are sitting at the inflection point of the curve — that awkward place where progr…