Quantum Surprise is Coming
Defense leaders who assume a slow curve risk being flat-footed when sensing, comms, and computing leap forward.
Good morning,
You’ve probably heard the adage, “opinions are like assholes… everyone has one and they all stink.”
Well the world of quantum technology is no different. Everybody seems to have an opinion on quantum.
For some, it’s a world-transforming revolution coming in the next five years: zero-fault quantum computers breaking every encryption system on Earth, instant secure communications, entire battle networks re-wired by physics itself. For others, including respected voices in academia, industry, and the Pentagon, quantum is 25 years away (or more), and any discussion of near-term military impacts is just hype. Heck, Gil Kalai—a highly regarded mathematician and computer scientist—has made quantum-skepticism a cornerstone of his polemics for two decades, and his opinion is that quantum computing is flat impossible.
Both camps are wrong.
Quantum is not science fiction, and it’s not the far future. We are sitting at the inflection point of the curve — that awkward place where progress still looks slow, but the slope is starting to climb. What happens in the next decade will determine whether the U.S. and its allies are ready to capture the advantages of quantum, or whether we sleepwalk into another surprise, watching adversaries operationalize breakthroughs while we’re still debating timelines.
Three Flavors of Quantum
Before diving in, let’s be clear: quantum technology isn’t one thing. It’s three overlapping but distinct domains:
Quantum Computing — machines that exploit superposition and entanglement to solve problems classical computers cannot.
Quantum Communications — transmitting quantum states across distances to enable physics-guaranteed security.
Quantum Sensing — using quantum effects to detect weak signals and measure with unprecedented precision.
Each sits at a different point on the adoption curve. Sensing is already climbing steeply, communications is bending upward, and computing is just approaching its inflection. Understanding those curves is the key to cutting through the hype and the fatalism.
The S-Curve Reality
Technologies rarely evolve linearly. They crawl, they stall, then — suddenly — they sprint.'
Sensing is already on the steep part of the curve. Prototypes exist, ruggedization is underway, and battlefield deployment is realistic this decade.
Communications is bending upward. Satellite QKD, entangled photon measurements, and W-state experiments are filling out the toolkit. We’re at the ARPANET stage: crude but proven.
Computing is just before the inflection. Logical qubits and error correction are the Wright Flyer of quantum — not global-scale machines yet, but proof that flight is real.
Most of the defense world hasn’t adjusted to this reality. They’re either extrapolating from the flat part of the curve (too bearish) or assuming vertical liftoff (too bullish). The truth is in the slope.
Quantum Computing: The Long Game That’s Accelerating
Let’s start with the hardest. Fault-tolerant quantum computers don’t exist yet. But the bottleneck has shifted from physics to engineering.
Logical qubits: Companies like Quantinuum, IBM, and IonQ are building qubits that correct their own errors. This is the shift from flying kites to powered flight.
Error correction: Once dismissed as impossible, it’s now demonstrated in labs. We’re watching steady reductions in gate error rates.
Warmer temperatures: Quantum computing used to require near absolute zero temperatures. Over the past year, we’ve seen significant increases in operating temperatures with some claims of qubits functioning at room temperature.
Capital: Billions are flowing into commercializing this research — and talent is following the money.
Military impact?
Cryptography: Every defense network depends on RSA/ECC today. A scaled quantum computer breaks them. Post-quantum crypto is urgent.
Simulation: Quantum chemistry and physics will accelerate new fuels, stealth materials, explosives, and nuclear research.
Optimization: Routing logistics under fire, allocating scarce ISR, or modeling kill-web and kill-mesh dynamics are all optimization problems. Quantum offers a path beyond supercomputers.
Timeline:
0–5 years: Pilot projects, threat modeling, post-quantum crypto adoption.
5–15 years: Early fault-tolerant systems, specialized advantage in chemistry, optimization, and cryptanalysis.
15+ years: Large-scale quantum advantage that could reshape deterrence.
Quantum Communications: The Coming Secure Backbone
Quantum comms are where the internet was in the ARPANET days. Point-to-point links exist, they’re crude, but they prove the physics.
China’s Micius satellite has already demonstrated quantum key distribution (QKD) over 1,200 km.
Europe is building EuroQCI, a regional quantum-secure network.
Recent breakthroughs in W-state measurements (Kyoto & Hiroshima Universities) give us the missing primitives for loss-tolerant, multi-party comms.
Military impact?
Unhackable links: Keys distributed by quantum physics, not math, mean interception is detectable.
Resilient battle networks: W states allow group comms that survive node dropouts — perfect for contested environments.
Satellite-to-ground: Long-range, jam-resistant comms across oceans, Arctic routes, or space assets.
Timeline:
0–5 years: Point-to-point satellite links, lab demos of multiparty protocols.
5–15 years: Regional networks (Europe, China, Indo-Pacific). Military use for secure command/control in high-threat theaters.
15+ years: Quantum-secure backbones for global coalition ops.
Quantum Sensing: The First to the Fight
This is the sleeper. While everyone debates computers, quantum sensors are quietly moving from labs to prototypes — and adversaries are watching.
Quantum magnetometers can detect submarines by sensing minute magnetic anomalies.
Quantum gravimeters can map underground tunnels or bunkers.
Quantum inertial navigation allows GPS-denied navigation with no satellites.
Quantum clocks keep precision timing even when networks are jammed.
Military impact?
Anti-submarine warfare: Quantum magnetometers could tilt undersea dominance.
GPS-denied ops: Quantum nav gives forces freedom from satellite reliance.
Underground ISR: Detect hardened facilities or covert infrastructure.
Clocks: Secure comms, precision strike synchronization, and resilient networks.
Timeline:
0–5 years: Ruggedization of prototypes, niche deployment.
5–15 years: Integrated into ships, aircraft, and subs.
15+ years: Sensor grids blanketing oceans, borders, and battlefields.
Why the Skeptics Are Wrong
The Joint Staff and JHU’s 25+ year estimates assume linear progress. But quantum is compounding:
Error correction is no longer theoretical.
Capital inflows are exponential.
Talent migration from academia to startups is accelerating.
Cross-pollination with AI, photonics, and advanced materials is shortening cycles.
The skeptics are right that we’re not there yet. But they miss the slope. They mistake flatness for stagnation. In reality, the steep part of the S-curve has begun.
The Battlefield Impact
Here’s the simple truth: quantum will not fight wars alone. But quantum layered on AI, autonomy, hypersonics, and resilient networks will shape how wars are fought and deterred.
Sensing: First to arrive — shifts in ISR, navigation, submarine warfare.
Comms: Next wave — secure coalition networks, hardened against cyber and EW.
Computing: The long game — breakthroughs in code-breaking, simulation, and optimization that reshape force design.
This isn’t about “instantaneous Mars-to-Earth comms,” magical teleportation, or even quantum-powered killer robots. It’s about incremental, physics-backed advances that accrue into decisive advantages.
The battlefield will feel the quantum shift sooner than the skeptics believe. The only question is whether we’re ready to build toward it — or whether we’ll once again be surprised.
Alright, on to the news.
News Headlines
U.S. firms pledge £150B ($202B) investment in U.K. as tech deal signed (BBC)
Trump to impose $100,000 fee per year for H-1B visas, in blow to tech (RT)
4Chan users block India-U.S. flights in ‘Operation Clog the Toilet’, a denial-of-service attack to prevent Indians from reentry into the United States prior to new H1B fee taking effect (NB)
Canada, Australia, Portugal join U.K. in recognizing Palestinian statehood (AlJ)
Ukraine counterattacks, scoring rare, if modest, success in Northeast (NYT)
Russia continues to test NATO resolve as three jets brazenly invade Estonian air space (AP)
Cyberattacks disrupt operations across European airports (TG)
Trump will meet with Xi in South Korea (BBG)
Quantum Tech
The White House reportedly is preparing executive actions to accelerate federal adoption of quantum technology and post-quantum cryptography (QI)
Researchers at the University of Glasgow have developed a record-setting narrow-linewidth semiconductor laser on a single chip (QI)
AI / ML
Trump hopes AI CEOs know what they're doing as they 'take over the world' (RT)
Congress grapples with role that AI plays in China-Taiwan relations (DO)
Pentagon CTO wants AI on every desktop in 6 to 9 months (DO)
State Department CIO seeks investment into Agentic AI (DO)
The Marine Corps is seeking to upskill its workforce on AI (DS)
Cybersecurity panelists spotlighted multiple risks and threats posed by emerging frontier AI applications; encourage transparency (DS)
U.K. to field swarm of AI drones within five years (DJ)
DeepMind and OpenAI won gold at 'coding Olympics' (FT)
OpenAI will spend $100B over five years on backup servers (TI)
OpenAI tapped a key Apple supplier to make AI devices (TI)
NanoTech / Chips
Northrop Grumman offers made-in-USA microelectronics to partner firms (BD)
China banned tech firms from buying Nvidia AI chips (FT)
U.S. stake in Intel is now worth $13B after Nvidia deal (BBG)
XR/AR/VR
Meta launches smart glasses with built-in display, reaching for 'superintelligence' (RT)
Deal Flow
Funds
Abu Dhabi AI investment firm MGX is looking to raise a debut fund with minimum $500M commitments (PEN)
Jack Altman's VC Alt Capital raised $275M for its second fund to invest in enterprise AI (TC)
VC firm BNVT Capital launched its debut $150M fund to invest in AI-first and technology-driven companies solving humanity's most pressing challenges (EUS)
VC
xAI raised $10B at a $200B valuation from Valor Capital, QIA, and Kingdom Holding (BBG)
AI inference startup Groq raised a $750M round at a $6.9B post-money valuation led by Disruptive (TC)
Nvidia is exploring a $500M investment in UK self-driving startup Wayve
AI network infrastructure startup Upscale AI raised a $100M+ seed round led by Mayfield and Maverick Silicon (PRN)
SEON, an AI platform to prevent fraud and money laundering, raised an $80M Series C led by Sixth Street Growth (SA)
AI security firm Irregular raised an $80M round led by Sequoia and Redpoint Ventures (TC)
PassiveLogic, an AI platform for orchestrating physical systems, raised a $74M Series C led by noa (TBN)
CodeRabbit, an AI code review platform, raised a $60M Series B led by Scale Venture Partners (TC)
European Agentic AI platform EvoluteIQ raised $53M in minority growth capital from Baird Capital (TFN)
Omnea, an AI-native procurement and intake orchestration platform, raised a $50M Series B led by Insight Partners and Khosla Ventures (PRN)
MarqVision, an AI startup fighting counterfeiting and trademark infringement, raised a $48M Series B led by Peak XV Partners (PU)
WorkFusion, a startup using AI agents to help financial compliance, raised $45M in funding led by Georgian (PRN)
Bria, a visual GenAI platform-as-a-service startup, raised a $40M Series B extension led by Red Dot Capital (TWM)
DRUID AI, a Romanian AI 'agentic' platform, raised a $31M Series C led by Cipio Partners (CBZ)
Terra Security, a company using AI for continuous penetration testing, raised a $30M Series A led by Felicis (PU)
Turnout, an AI-powered consumer service that reimagines how Americans navigate complex government and financial processes, raised a $21M seed round led by Shine Capital and LGVP (PRN)
German AI compliance platform Kertos raised a $16.5M Series A led by Portage (TFN)
Mueon, a semiconductor-based systems for AI and hyperscale computing, raised a $15.5M seed round led by Intel Capital (PRN)
Atomionics raised a $12.7 million pre-Series A round led by Paspalis to develop quantum gravimetry sensors to speed mineral discovery (MN)
Developer tools startup Blacksmith raised a $10M Series A led by Google Ventures (TC)
Plumerai, a UK startup developing AI solutions for cameras, raised an $8.7M Series A led by Partech and OTB Ventures (TEU)
Vibranium Labs, a startup building 'Vibe AI' to help anticipate and prevent critical incidents, raised a $4.6M seed round led by Calibrate Ventures and Mirae Asset (PRN)
PE / M&A / Exits
Abu Dhabi AI investment firm MGX joined PE firm Silver Lake's buyout group in acquiring a 51% stake in Intel's programmable chip business Altera for $8.75B (BBG)
Nvidia agreed to invest $5B in Intel (RT)
Quantum Computing Inc. announced an oversubscribed private placement of 26.9 million shares, expected to raise $500 million in gross proceeds (QI)
AI cloud infrastructure firm Boost Run agreed to merge with Willow Lane Acquisition Corp. at a $614M valuation (BBG)
Opportunities
The Army Research Office in partnership with NSA’s Laboratory for Physical Science is soliciting research proposals for participation in the LPS Qubit Collaboratory (LQC) to
1) pursue disruptive fundamental research and enabling technologies with a focus on qubit development for quantum computing and other applications (such as sensing);
2) grow deep, collaborative partnerships to tackle the most difficult and relevant long-term problems in quantum information science and technology; and
3) build a quantum workforce of tomorrow through research experiences in government at LPS and at LQC partners (SAM)
The Army Engineer Research and Development Center’s High Performance Modernization Computing Program (HPCMP) is seeking innovative commercial solutions to advance the state of AI/ML for the DoD (SAM)
Lighter Side
Keep Building,
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