Rebellion
Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion and its long-lived implications
Good morning,
I’m back from my short vacation and of course, all the fun happens while I’m away.
My Dataminr FirstAlert app was going crazy while I was away, with the tragic news of the Titan submersible and the search that followed, only to see a short-lived, attempted rebellion in Russia immediately after.
This rebellion that unfolded within Russia, showcased deep divisions within the country's state apparatus and the implications it holds for the ongoing war in Ukraine and the broader defense ecosystem.
This major upheaval took place as Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the leader of the powerful Russian mercenary and paramilitary group known as the Wagner Group, refused to pledge loyalty to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Prigozhin accused Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov of incompetence, claiming that they had relied on the Wagner Group to carry out military operations in Ukraine while neglecting to provide necessary support.
President Vladimir Putin stepped in on behalf of Shoigu, backing the demand for fealty from all mercenary groups operating in Ukraine. Prigozhin, however, defied this directive, sparking a rebellion. He led his 25,000-strong Wagner Group on a march toward Moscow, seizing control of the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don along the way.
To the surprise of many, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko intervened and brokered a deal to halt the rebellion. Under the agreement, Prigozhin and the Wagner Group would relocate to Belarus, and Russia would refrain from prosecuting them for mutiny or sedition.
The implications of this rebellion reverberate on multiple levels:
1. **Internal Divisions:** The rebellion has exposed deep fissures within the Russian state apparatus. Prigozhin's defiance and subsequent military actions indicate a significant power struggle between influential figures, such as Shoigu and Gerasimov, and other factions within the Russian military and security apparatus. While Putin remains in control, this rebellion has certainly weakened his position. Had Wagner Group continued its march, that position would have been eroded even further. Now, the Kremlin is in full-crisis mitigation mode, even as they claim “business as usual.” Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has come out calling on all Russians to united behind President Putin.
2. **War in Ukraine:** It’s currently uncertain how large of an impact this will have on Russia’s military operations in Ukraine. Most reporting (such as from the Institute for the Study of War) suggest that the impact has been minimal on the Russian military’s ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations. Nevertheless, the rebellion could signal future troubles from other force already reluctant to fight in Ukraine. Alternately, Lukashenko’s negotiated deal could see the reopening of a northern front in Ukraine as the Wagner Group could strike towards Kyiv from Belarusian territory. As Russia seeks to reassure its forces, it has posted videos of Defense Minister Shoigu visiting front-line troops. The videos dates remain uncertain. One more important note is that Ukrainian intelligence claims that Russian forces have prepared 4 of 6 reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with explosives, as part of a false-flag operation.
3. **Broader Defense Ecosystem:** The rebellion and its aftermath will likely have wider implications for the defense ecosystem. It exposes the vulnerabilities of relying heavily on mercenaries and paramilitary groups, highlighting the challenges of integrating them into a conventional military structure. Sean McFate has written about this for years. Further, part of Priozhin’s justification of the rebellion were about defense materiel shortfalls. We’ve already seen plenty of conversation about the shortfalls in our own defense production, and Prigozhin’s rebellion just further underlines the risks of not addressing these shortfalls.
The situation remains fluid, with both Putin and Prigozhin seemingly biding their time for their next move. As the dust settles, it is crucial to monitor the evolving dynamics in Russia and their potential impact on the war in Ukraine and the broader defense landscape.
Through it all, two things remain clear. We must continue to support Ukraine as it struggles to remain free. And, we must continue to…
Keep building!
Andrew