SPECIAL: Iran Attacks Israel
Early lessons for Defense Tech
This evening, Iran launched a barrage of one way attack drones and missiles against Israel.
This attack demonstrated a sophistication of operational art (arranging tactical actions in time, space, and purpose to achieve strategic aims), as Iran attempted to synchronize the arrival of the drones and missiles, as well as coordinate with proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (Houthis).
Fortunately, Israel had several hours to prepare for the attack.
I made some additional predictions of things to watch for, most of which have seemed to transpired. I think it’s important to understand what this means for defense technology.
But first let’s lay out some of what we know about this attack.
What we know:
Why did Iran attack Israel?
Iran has stated that the strike was to punish “Israeli crimes.” While this is vague, we’ve been expecting some sort of action for some time. On April 1, Israel conducted a strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven IRGC members including two senior commanders. It is highly probable that the attack is directly linked to this previous air strike.
How did Iran attack?
Exact numbers are hard to determine, and reporting is often questionable particularly early in conflicts. Initial reporting suggested “dozens” of drones. Estimates range upwards to 400-500 drones, although half that number is more likely. Additionally, it seems around 70 missiles were also launched from Iran. On top of that, additional drones and rockets were launched from Yemen and Lebanon.
Iranian drones had to overfly other countries to get to Israel, how did those countries respond?
Iraq closed its airspace prior to overflight, to protect civilian aircraft. Some countries activated their own air defenses to protect their airspace. For example, Jordanian jets downed dozens of drones. Missile debris also reportedly fell in Marj Al Hamam area of Amman and in Ar-Ramin, suggesting that Jordanian air defense successfully engaged some of the missiles, as well. However, as Amman is only about 45 miles from Jerusalem, it is possible that the missile debris is from Israeli air defense engagements.
Further, the United States, United Kingdom, and other countries also contributed to the downing of drones and missile.
But did anything get through?
Yes. And that was by design. Iran intended to overwhelm the air defenses, hoping that in a blitz, at least a few blows would land. And it appears that some have. The Arrow-3 system has performed remarkably well in engaging the missiles and the coordinated air response has dealt with the majority of the drones. However, with at least 150 missiles fired, some have snuck through including Umm al-Fahm and Negev.
Negev is a symbolic target for Iran, as the air strike against the Iranian consulate allegedly originated at the airbase there.
What happens next?
Iran and Israel have long had a simmering feud, but have never attacked one another’s countries directly.
For its part, Iran has stated that it will continue its attack and that targeting the Negev airbase, was just the “starting point” for its response.
Israel has not yet decided how it will respond, but we can assume that the gloves are coming off for them as well. President Biden has asked Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to inform him of any action he intends to take against Iran.
The United Nations is convening an emergency session of the Security Council tomorrow, at Israel’s request. And certainly, diplomatic activity across the region will accelerate.
What remains to be seen, then, is how will Israel respond. It may decide to respond in a low-visibility way, although this seems highly improbable to me. It may choose an aggressive (potentially escalatory) response, laying “scunion” so to speak. It may choose a response somewhere between these two extremes. Of course, this is most likely. But what targets will it choose? Will they be ones within Iran (again, unprecedented but more likely than ever before) or external across the region? One set of potential targets are the facilities that Iran is using to develop its nuclear capabilities.
Regardless, the coming days are certain to be tense and impactful.
Defense Tech Lessons
There are several immediate lessons that I think we can take from this attack. I’ll keep them brief for now though.
Attritable mass is a staple of modern warfare.
Exquisite-attritable teaming will outperform other setups (strictly exquisite systems in few numbers or massive numbers of attritable systems).
The ability to mass effects (rather than forces) creates multiple dilemmas for adversaries.
Massed effects are achieved through technology-enabled distributed operations.
All-domain protection (including air defense) grows in importance proportionally to the growth in proliferation of low-cost autonomous systems.
Forces must prepare to fight in GNSS-/GPS-denied environments (Israel jammed GPS signals as drones approached). This may require preprogrammed terminal guidance or certain human-on-the-loop autonomous systems with less control than we usually like.
Networks of sensors are critical to provide early indications and warnings. These sensor must include various parts of the electro-magnetic spectrum, but also acoustic, seismic, and other sensors.
I suspect as events continue to unfold over the next few days, we’ll be able to draw many more lessons. These are just the first ones that pop out at me. I’m curious to know what jumps out to anyone else. Please leave a comment if you see other lessons for Defense Tech from today.
It seems that every time the United States tries to extricate itself from the Middle East, geopolitics pulls us right back in. The events of today are no different. To be sure, the Middle East remains a geopolitically important region and what happens here does matter to us.
The coming days and weeks will be informative, tense, and potentially very dangerous. Let us hope that the various stakeholders find ways to deescalate the situation. Nevertheless, we must also accept that today’s world is dangerous and that we must,
Keep building!
Andrew