Striking the right balance in manned-unmanned teams (MUM-T)
Defense and dual-use texhnologies
Good morning,
A debate has raged for several years over the right mix of manned and unmanned systems in current and future warfare. This debate has crescendoed recently with Elon Musk—in his role as advisor on ‘government efficiency’—taking Lockheed Martin to task for the F-35 program. Musk has expressed his belief that it’s foolish for the military to continue buying manned, capital platforms instead of investing in small, autonomous systems. This week Musk received some ideological support as Booz Allen Hamilton’s CEO, Horacio Rozanski, stated that we’ve already reached a point where we’re seeing fully-roboticized warfare, albeit principally in the cyber domain.
At the same time, Brig Gen Doug ‘Beaker’ Wickert, the commander of the Air Force’s 412th Test Wing and Lt Gen (Ret) Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute, have both cast doubt on fully autonomous warfare. Wickert was quoted saying that fully-roboticized warfare is ‘centuries away’ and Deptula outlined the case for continued investment and development of the next generation air dominance (NGAD) manned aircraft.
It would be easy to dismiss Deptula and Wickert’s skepticism as a continuation of Air Force fighter pilot gatekeeping or protectionism; we have seen plenty of that over the past several decades with the rise of drones. Doing so, however, would be foolhardy. The right answer, of course, is a mix of manned and unmanned (or crewed and uncrewed) systems operating across and within all domains. But again we have to ask ‘what is the right mix?’
That’s an incredibly difficult question to answer, but ideally with the application of self-organizing swarms executing plays and tactics, we’ll see a dramatic increase in spans of control. DARPA’s OFFSET program proved several years ago that a single controller could manage up to around 200 autonomous agents of varying types (fixed wing, rotary wing, and ground robots) operating in multiple domains (air, ground).
Regardless, the span of control will likely change over the next few decades. Whether it’s 1:10 or 1:1,000, employing a mixture of manned and unmanned systems as teams promises to help fundamentally shift the tooth-to-tail ratios and help offset adversary mass. In other words, we need both and we need to keep building!
Now, let’s dig in to the news!
News Headlines:
Startups and DOGE dominated Reagan Forum (DO)
Biden approves national security memo on China, Iran, N. Korea, and Russia ahead of Trump's return (AP)
S. Korea's ex-defense minister formally arrested over brief imposition of martial law (AP)
Taiwan demands that China end its military activity in nearby waters (AP)
Russia vows response after Ukraine used U.S.-made ATACMS to strike airfield (RT)
Russia warns citizens to avoid travel to West, 'U.S. authorities hunting down Russians' (RT)
Defense & Dual-Use Technologies
Trump's Musk-led efficiency drive may spur defense-tech partnerships (RT)
House passes $883.7B NDAA, heads next to Senate for vote (TH)
House and Senate defense committees agree on independent cyber force assessment (DS)
Lawmakers set to punt AI weapon systems 'center of excellence' decision to Pentagon (DS)
Defense policy bill directs creation of 'cyber intelligence capability' (DS)
Congress wants the Pentagon to explore extending the range of current air-to-air missiles (TWZ)
Pentagon to award $50M to accelerate development of emerging tech projects under 'APFIT' (DS)
Army, Navy successfully conduct end-to-end test of hypersonic missile (DOD)
The tiny island of Guam forms a centerpiece is the U.S. effort to protect against Chinese advanced missiles (RT)
Former acting SecDef outlines the future of major acquisition programs in DoD (TWZ)
Sen. Kelly (D-AZ): Air Force, Navy should work more closely on 6th-gen fighter (DS)
Simulators at sea help navy aviators stay sharp; Navy wants more of them (DO)
Anduril demonstrates its vision for data-centric warfare (MIT)
Threat Tech
House report: 'foreign adversary' likely behind Havana syndrome incidents (MIL)
Researchers uncover Chinese spyware used to target Android devices (TC)
China is training super-pilots with qigong for stealth jet and drone battle (SCMP)
China-Russia cooperation poses rising threat in Arctic (DN)
China can take out U.S. military airfields in IndoPacific too easily: Stimson Center researchers (RT)
Putin considers deploying new Oreshnik hypersonic missile with multiple warheads to Belarus (RT)
INDOPACOM chief: Russia mulling transferring MiG-29s and Su-27s to North Korea (DO)
Russian military suppliers exploit loophole in U.S. microchip embargo (TDP)
Russian state actors are hacking other hackers to tunnel into Ukrainian systems and Starlink (AT)
Su-57 Felon's 2-dimensional thrust-vectoring engine nozzle breaks cover (TWZ)
Foreign Defense Tech
EU's new defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, looks to kick rearmament into high gear (DN)
Australian Navy fires Tomahawk cruise missile for the first time (TWZ)
French, Turkish naval companies tinker with torpedo interceptors (DN)
Spain reportedly blocking port calls of arms-carrying ships bound for Israel (AP)
South Korea commissions its first next-gen Aegis destroyer (DN)
U.K.'s 757-based 'Excalibur' avionics testbed for Tempest future fighter emerges (TWZ)
British troops test laser weapon as cheap option to fry drones (DN)
Defense Industry
Booz Allen CEO we're already in fully-roboticized warfare; thinks space is domain to watch for future wars (AX)
Northrop, Raytheon, Lockheed pair systems in successful air and missile defense test (DB)
Autonomous Systems
CCA Increment 2 requirements left for new Air Force leadership to choose (ASF)
Fighter jock Air Force general remains skeptical on autonomous systems; 'robotized warfare… is centuries away' (DO)
U.S.-backed Kurdish group mistakes American MQ-9 for Turkish drone, shoots it down (ASF)
Ukraine's cheap trolley drones may have blasted an important Russian airplane factory (FBS)
Pentagon: mystery drones over New Jersey are 'not U.S. military,' not likely foreign (TC)
Deal Flow:
Funds
J.F. Lehman & Company, a MM PE firm focused on aerospace, defense, and the environment, closed its sixth flagship fund at $2.2B (PRN)
Fly Ventures in Berlin raised $84.6M for its Fund III, focused on inception-stage deep tech companies (TC)
Defense tech VC Protego raises $70M in just two weeks, sets sights on $200M (CT)
Humba Ventures raises $40M fund to invest in deep tech, defense tech (TC)
VC
Archer teams up with Anduril and raises $430 million from existing and new investors to build defense aircraft (TC)
Ask Sage, a GenAI platform for government, raised a $17M Series A led by Sapphire Ventures (CBZ)
Vancouver-based drone earth-imaging company Spexi raised an $11.5M Sereies A round led by Blockchange Ventures (DL)
Reveal Technology raised an $11.2M Series A led by Next Frontier Capital to scale 'decision dominance' tools for DoD (TC)
GovSignals, a NYC-based government contracting AI automation platform, raised $5.5M in seed funding from Unusual VC (AX)
CAT Labs, a startup building tools to prevent misuse of emerging technologies, raised a $5.4M seed round led by M13 (CBZ)
PE / M&A
Joby Aviation launches $300M public offering following FAA Part 141 flight training approval and completion of U.S. Air force maintenance training and ahead of 2025 commercial eVTOL launch (TC)
PE firm Trive Capital is exploring a sale or IPO of defense contractor Karman Space & Defense at a $3B+ valuation (BBG)
Italian aerospace components manufacturer Forgital is in talks to be sold by The Carlyle Group to another PE firm, with Stonepeak, Cinven, and JP Morgan making offers (RT)
Opportunities
The Army is seeking partners for its Modern Software Delivery IDIQ contract to help it speed the development, delivery, and adaptation of software (SAM)
DARPA wants to use existing flora in operational environments as sensors (SAM)
AFRL is looking for novel and pioneering aerospace capabilities (SAM)
Editor's Picks:
Pete Modigliani and Matt MacGregor have reviewed and broken down the FY25 NDAA for us!
Alice Saltini and Yanliang Pan offer thoughts on managing AI-related risks in nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems.
Assistant Navy secretary Nick Guertin and advisor Jacob Glassman outline the critical role of modular, open-systems architectures to future military success.
Lighter Side:
Keep Building,
BOF
Thank you for your very thoughtful and concise comments! Warfare is changing very rapidly and we can't afford to cling to the past and expect to be successful in future engagements.