The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' and Golden Dome Missile Defense
Trillion-dollar tax cuts, trillion-dollar consequences, and trillion-dollar illusions of missile defense
Good morning,
Two days ago, we warned about the national security implications of Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill. The Senate has passed the bill by a 51-50 vote, extending nearly $4T in tax cuts with an expected (low-end estimate) additional increase to national debt of $3.9T. Behavioral economist Noah Smith aggregates a lot of the analysis on the likely impacts of this bill—and the outlook is gloomy: higher rates, lower GDP, compounding interest on the debt.
So, from here, the bill will return to the lower chamber in Congress, for a vote on the final, reconciled version of the bill. Having narrowly passed the House in its original form, again by one vote, and given that as of this morning 38 GOP congressmen were absent from D.C., it’s questionable if Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and his team can whip a sufficient number of votes to pass the bill. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has cast her own doubt on the bill’s success.
Meanwhile, in space…
The Space Force has finally launched market research for space-based interceptors — a potential backbone of the ‘Golden Dome’ initiative. This system is envisioned as a national-level air and missile defense architecture capable of protecting the United States from intercontinental, hypersonic, and other advanced threats.
We’ve said it before:
The government is grossly overestimating the effectiveness of such a system and wildly underestimating the cost.
To be clear, we’re not arguing against pursuing advanced missile defense. But it must be done in a manner to maximize the likelihood of success.
Which brings us to the 12-day Iran-Israel war.
Israel has the densest missile defense architecture on Earth.
It’s territory is less than one-quarter of 1% of the size of the United States. Even with such a small amount of territory defended by the most advanced missile defense systems like David’s Sling, Arrow missiles, expending nearly all of their munitions and with U.S. support firing SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors, Israel wasn’t hermetically sealed against threats. Missiles still got through. People still died
A comprehensive missile shield for the United States—more than 450 times the size of Israel—isn’t just a technical challenge.
It’s strategic illusion unless pursued with relentless discipline, realism, and cost controls.
Let’s not trade one ‘beautiful’ fiction for another.
Alright, let’s move on to the news!
News Headlines
President Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' clears penultimate hurdle, passing only with the VPOTUS casting a tie-breaking vote (FX)
Musk threatens to create 'America Party' if Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' passes Senate (CNN)
Trump strikes back with threats to SpaceX, Tesla (RT)
President sends personal note to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell demanding 1% interest rates (BI)
Trump says Israel has agreed to terms of 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, encourages Hamas to do so as well (AP)
U.S. lifts sanctions on Syria (AP)
TikTok's potential US buyer is a consortium of Oracle, Blackstone, and a16z -- the same group behind a previous stalled bid (BBG)
Satellites
Launches
Upcoming Launches
Space News
DARPA kills its DRACO nuclear-thermal rocket joint program with NASA after five years (BD)
Space Force eyes maneuverable satellites and cloud-based control software to outpace threats in orbit (SN)
Space Force boosts ecosystem of GPS alternatives in LEO (ASF)
Missile Defense Agency's budget targets homeland missile defense (MT)
Muni market is poised for 'space bonds' with Big, Beautiful Bill (BBG)
Bezos-backed methane tracking satellite lost in space (DW)
LeoLabs secures military funding for missile-tracking mobile radar (SN)
MDA awards Lockheed Martin Aegis contract worth up to $2.97B (NI)
Disney hopes animated film Elio can do for the Space Force what Top Gun did for the Navy (MIL)
SpaceX scores $81.6M contract to launch Space Force weather satellite (SN)
Foreign Space News
Australia's first orbital rocket launch delayed... again (SP)
Chinese Shijian spacecraft begin rendezvous and proximity operations in GEO, again (SN)
SPACECOM Commander admits Beijing is moving 'breathtakingly fast' on militarizing space (MP)
Chinese scientists push for cubesat 'swarm' to fly by Apophos asteroid (SN)
China to set up first international association on deep-space exploration (XN)
France invests 'seed' money for near-space / VLEO operations (DN)
Planet signs multi-year, $280M deal to provide imagery to German government (SN)
Japan launches GOSAT-GW on 50th and final liftoff of H2A rocket (SP)
War in Ukraine has hurt Russia's space program (SA)
Russian spacecraft deploys possible anti-satellite weapon near USA 326 (STC)
Deal Flow
Funds
E.U. Commission to propose dedicated defense and space investment in new fund (RT)
Space VC funding is on track to hit a new record (PB)
Seven2 held a $471.7M final close for a continuation fund for two companies including French satellite communication services provider Marlink (AA)
Tolkien-inspired founders and investors flock to new Tolkien-inspired bank after SVB's 2023 failure (FT
VC
Xona Space Systems raised a $92M Series B led by Craft Ventures to develop a precision navigation and timing constellation in LEO (PL)
Skynopy, a startup providing ground station services for low Earth orbit satellites, raised a $17.5M round led by Alven (VS)
PE / M&A / Other
TransDigm is set to acquire Simmonds Precision Products from RTX for $765M (PRN)
MDA completed its acquisition of SatixFy in a deal reportedly valued around $356M (PRN)
Debt
Isar Aerospace raised $177.1M through a convertible bond agreement (SN)
Opportunities
It begins: the Space Force is conducting market research to identify space based interceptor capabilities for Golden Dome (SAM)
NASA is looking for potential vendors to provide operations and maintenance of the Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex in Spain (SAM)
The Space Force is looking for potential vendors that can help with data analysis, modeling, and simulations (SAM)
Editor’s Picks
Andy Weir's Project Hail Mary is getting a movie starring Ryan Gosling trying to save the sun.
Lighter Side
Keep Building,
BOF