The Myth of Declining Lethality

Why chasing 'lethality' at all costs could make America’s military less effective.

Good morning,

In his first 100 days as Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth has made one thing abundantly clear: lethality is the mission. ‘Lethality, lethality, lethality,’ he declared—cutting programs, restructuring commands, and reviving a combative ethos under the banner of building a more ‘lethal’ force.

But here’s the thing: the U.S. military is already more lethal than ever before.

And ironically, by singularly fixating on ‘lethality,’ Hegseth’s approach may undermine the very combat power he wants to enhance.

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The U.S. Military’s Lethality Has Grown—Dramatically

Let’s look at the numbers.

Across modern American wars, the efficiency of killing power—defined as the ratio of enemy killed to U.S. killed—has risen sharply:

Combat efficiency measuring Enemy KIA per U.S. KIA across seven wars

The overall trend of lethality has increased over time

Observing these data, one might be inclined to believe that its confirmatory of Hegseth’s claims that lethality has decreased—at least since 1991. But that’s not actually true. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are more the exceptions that prove the rule. Those wars were aberrant in the following ways:

1. Strategic creep - The initial invasions into both countries met quick success, only to have the National Command Authority issue changes of mission. The invasion of Afghanistan saw combat efficiency on par with Operation Desert Storm (100:1) and the invasion of Iraq saw combat efficiency of ~65:1. As the mission changed to creating conditions for successful transitions of governance, the U.S. military intentionally schwacked fewer enemies.

2. Enemies disappeared - At the same time, these conflicts devolved into counter-insurgencies. Enemies shed their uniforms and melted into populaces. Military restraint was prudent and necessary, but further skewed the combat efficiencies.

3. Changing tactics - As those enemies moved into the shadows, they increased their reliance on novel weapons and capabilities in a cat-and-mouse game resembling the one currently ongoing in Ukraine. U.S. forces eager to be among the population to reassure and support, exposed themselves to the increased and changing threats, again skewing the combat efficiences.

At the end of the day, the U.S. military’s lethality continues its long, upward trend. And, this trend isn’t anecdotal—it’s systemic. From trench warfare to drone strikes, the U.S. has consistently developed tools, tactics, and technology that maximize lethality while minimizing friendly losses.

By this metric alone, the modern U.S. warfighter is the most lethal in human history.

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The Tooth-to-Tail Trap

So what explains Hegseth’s critique?

Part of it is aesthetic: bureaucrats and PowerPoint generals don’t look like warriors. Part of it is political. Hegseth has taken on the role of the President’s attack dog, drawing (often false) contrasts with previous administrations and spinning narratives to reinforce those contrasts. But part of it is also a deeper misunderstanding of how lethality is actually produced.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: lethality depends on the tail.

Consider the tooth-to-tail ratio—the share of a force directly involved in combat (the ‘tooth’) versus those in support roles (the ‘tail’):

Combat Forces as a Percentage of Total Force Structure During Wars

As our military has grown more technologically advanced, the tail has grown too: logistics, maintenance, cyber, comms, intel, ISR, EW, and medical support—all enabling a smaller number of warfighters to dominate the battlefield.

In fact, when we increase the tooth-to-tail ratio (more ‘warriors,’ fewer supporters), our overall lethality drops.

Why?

Because now the warfighter is burdened with tasks they’re not optimized to perform—fueling generators, hauling supplies, repairing drones, fixing roads. And that’s assuming they survive long enough to do it.

Cut the tail, and you bleed the tooth.

And yes, contract support is part of that tail.

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Soldiers and Warriors

Hegseth draws a hard line between ‘soldiers’ and ‘warriors’—suggesting that professional, disciplined service members are somehow less lethal than hard-edged, instinctive fighters.

But that’s a false dichotomy.

We don’t need to choose between the warrior spirit and the professional soldier. We need both. We need the courage, certainty, and grit of warriors—and the training, discipline, moral/ethical judgment, and team focus of soldiers.

The U.S. military doesn’t suffer from a lack of ‘killers.’ It suffers when leadership succumbs to simplistic narratives that ignore the interdependent system required to fight—and win—modern wars.

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Building Lethality the Right Way

True lethality doesn’t come from slogans.

It comes from designing a force where every warfighter is fully supported, every piece of gear works when needed, every bit of ISR feeds into decision-making, and every logistic chain functions under fire.

It means funding the unglamorous: maintenance, repair, and overhaul agreements with Allies and partners, systems to ensure resupply when logistics are contested, C2 redundancy, EM spectrum superiority, targeting networks, and precision manufacturing.

It also means training, educating, and empowering gifted individuals to understand policy and strategy and able to design campaigns of discrete tactical actions to achieve those policies and strategies.

It means not only building warriors—but giving them the tools, teammates, and trust to fight like professionals.

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Final Thought

If we want to build the most lethal force on Earth, we should start by recognizing we already have it.

What we risk now is breaking that lethality in pursuit of a myth—a fantasy that killing power comes only from the barrel of a gun, rather than the entire ecosystem that ensures the gun fires, hits its mark, and gets replaced before the next battle.

Let’s build the future—not just for warriors, but for victory.

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Alright, on to the news.

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News Headlines

• Pentagon pulls all speakers from Aspen Security Forum because Forum supports 'evil of globalism' (MT)

• Top U.S. commander in Europe warns NATO must be ready for 2-front conflict with Russia and China (SS)

• French military withdraws from last base in former colony Senegal, 67 years after independence (AlJ)

• Record breaking skydiver Felix Baumgartner—who jumped from more than 24 miles up and fell at speeds faster than the speed of sound—died in paragliding accident in Italy (TG)

• U.S. plans to set 93.5% tariff on battery material from China (RT)

• Melania Trump may have been part of President’s about-face on Ukraine (DW)

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Defense & Dual-Use Technologies 

• Pentagon pours $179B into R&D, includes: B-21, CCAs, hypersonics, AI, and 20% for classified projects (TP)

• America's largest rare earths producer wants to end China's dominance (WSJ)

• Senate bill calls for tighter reserve component inclusion in cyber mission force (DS)

• Senators warn White House over concerns 'Reciprocal Defense Procurements' could hurt American defense industrial base (BD)

• Delays in Navy's next-gen submarine program threaten U.S. seapower (DN)

• House moves to block Pentagon effort to scrap E-7 Wedgetail program (ASF)

• U.S. to build 'fast boat base' in Philippines along South China Sea (NI)

• Israel-Iran conflict marks the first operational use of U.S. military's Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile or LRASM (TWZ)

• TRANSCOM wants a more active role in information operations (DS)

• Army conducts first live-fire exercise of Typhon missile system outside of the U.S. (TWZ)

• Marines to field new 'smart' scope to help shoot down small drones (TP)

Threat Tech

• China-Russia nexus jumps to top of mind for Japan's defense planners (DN)

• New report highlights risk of undersea cable attacks from China and Russia will continue growing (TG)

• China's Salt Typhoon's hacks into National Guard systems a 'serious escalation', experts warn (DO)

• Japan highlights that Pacific military balance now tilts in favor of China (NI)

• Laos sends troops to Russia to support war in Ukraine (MP)

• Houthi-linked arms dealers have taken to X, WhatsApp for brokering deals (TG)

Foreign Defense Tech

• Australia's navy tests gravity-based navigation tech to counter GPS jamming and spoofing (IE)

• Macron pledges to boost French defense spending to €64B in 'age of predators (POL)

• Germany requests U.S. long-range weapons as bridge to European tech (DN)

• Italy wants to classify certain infrastructure projects as defense spending to meet NATO obligation (DN)

• Taiwan trains to use subway during potential Chinese invasion (TWZ)

• Ukraine is fielding new crop of unmanned boats for river warfare (DN)

Defense Industry

• Dept of Homeland Security cancels 2x Coast Guard offshore patrol cutters (SP)

• Airbus, Kratos team to pitch German Air Force drone wingmen (BD)

• BAE to build battlefield medical app for U.S. Air Force (DJ)

• British Tories slam Boeing, demands clarity on E-7 Wedgetail (DJ)

• Core Tech subsidiary wins $295M for Guam Defense System Command Center (NI)

• Pentagon awards $200M contracts to Anthropic, Google, xAI each for agentic AI (BD)

• Manufacturing scale-up Hadrian expands with new facility in Arizona, offers defense primes home visits (BD)

• L3Harris unveils 'wolf pack' swarming munitions for saturation attacks (BD)

• Lockheed reveals second low-cost cruise missile 'truck' and successful flight tests (ASF)

• RTX awarded $74M Navy contract for RAM guided missile launching system (SP)

• Scientific Systems introduces VENOM a small USV designed to intercept other USVs (SP)

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Autonomous Systems 

• Pentagon seeks to surge its multi-domain drone arsenal (DS)

• Special operations forces are converting drones into motherships carrying smaller drones (TWZ)

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) calls for heightened federal drone defense strategy (TH)

• Air Force's Red Flag exercise shows pitfalls of fielding American drones (DN)

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Finance & Deal Flow

VC

• Hadrian, an automated factory startup, raised $260M in funding led by Founders Fund and Lux Capital (PRN)

• Firestorm Labs, an expeditionary manufacturing company, raised a $47M Series A led by NEA (PRN)

• Chariot Defense, a power platform for militaries in battlefield, raised an $8M seed round led by General Catalyst and XYZ (PRN)

• Danish defense tech startup Quadsat raised a $5.8M Series A extension led by Join Capital and North Ventures (EUS)

PE / M&A / Exits / Other

• Apple will invest $500M into rare earths miner MP Materials (RT)

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Exciting Opportunities

• Mark your calendars: DARPA will be hosting the inaugural Next-Generation Microelectronics Manufacturing Summit October 27-28 in Texas (SAM)

• SOCOM seeks help in developing concepts under the theme, 'Contested Logistics in Future SOF Operations' -- primarily focused on providing reliable, resilient, and adaptable power solutions to support untethered Special Operations Forces (SAM)

• Army DEVCOM is looking to test counter-drone solutions in Saudi Arabia and in the United States (SAM)

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Editor's Picks

• President of Chevalier Strategic Advisors Frank Rose raises the alarm on administration's cuts to research institutions that have long driven innovation for defense and security.

• HAC-D Subcommittee Chair Ken Calvert (R-CA) highlights the accelerating defense innovation ecosystem.

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Lighter Side

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Keep Building,

BOF

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