Will the Peace Hold?

Jun 19, 2026

Happy long weekend. A few short things to know before unplugging from the world to binge watch World Cup 2026 match day 2:

The tentative peace with Iran is appearing very fragile as Israel thumbs its nose at the U.S. by refusing to depart Lebanon. Iran has, in turn, issued a stop-movement order for ships in the Strait of Hormuz—saying it’s once more closed until Israel is out of Lebanon and the U.S. draws down its presence. The U.S. has for its part honored the agreement by ending the Naval blockade.
The administration has once more embarked on an Ally-bashing campaign. Hegseth has called for NATO 3.0, in which U.S. commitments to honor its treaty obligations become contingent rather than guaranteed. Italian PM Meloni is incensed by President Trump’s claim that she ‘begged’ for a photo with him, leading to a public rebuke and the cancellation of a planned state visit. We still need diplomacy in this world…
Congressional Republicans are getting fed up with Trump’s interference in their ability to get things done. Most recently, Trump’s back-and-forth on the nomination of a real DNI has cost the party’s ability to renew the FISA authorizations. Further, a predictable revolt seems to be fomenting over the terrible Iran deal.
Ukraine struck Moscow this week, sending a deep psychological message to Russians that the war has truly been brought to their Homefront. FAFO and all that.
World Cup Matchday 1 is over. Here’s a recap. Tell us who you think is going to win!

News Headlines

U.S., Iranian officials sign 14-point MoU extending ceasefire and framing peace negotiations (DN)
U.S.-Iran talks postponed as Vance pulls out of Switzerland trip (BBC)
Israeli military strikes in southern Lebanon in intense fighting (AP)
Republicans blast Trump’s Iran deal as details emerge (RT)
U.K. officials expect Russian retaliation for seizure of shadow fleet tanker (TG)
Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first meeting under Warsh (CNBC)
Senate committee rejects admin proposal that would compress troop pay, votes for 3.6% for all (MT)
Polish official: U.S. is interested in permanent base in Poland (AP)
Lithuania’s new coalition seeks long-term U.S. presence (RT)
Germany moves ships to Djibouti, eyeing multinational Hormuz mission this summer (DN)
After Hegseth decided medical readiness doesn’t matter, flu outbreak sidelines 160 basic trainees in Texas (ABC)
Amid geopolitical uncertainty, China trims US Treasury holdings to 18-year low (MP)
Investors have started pricing in a potential rate hike before September (BBG)
Ukraine strikes deep into the heart of Russia, destroying refinery in Moscow (NYT)

Congress wants to limit U.S. navy vessels built in foreign shipyards (MT)
Congress questions Pentagon’s ability to supply Ukraine with Patriot interceptors (TWZ)
SASC wants a new destroyer design to accompany battleship (NI)
Navy Secretary Cao highlights information warfare (MT)
Policy hurdles, disconnect with Pentagon office lead to ‘mixed success’ for major SOCOM programs, watchdog says (DS)
Navy is closer to putting LRASM anti-ship missiles on F-35s (TDP)
China claims foreign intelligence services are weaponizing sea turtles, fish (TH)

Japan’s defense chief challenges China’s military spending data (BBG)
Beijing complains about ‘military’ label attached to tech companies (POL)
Chinese military study outlines strategy to target US warships from 1,800 miles away (IE)
China showcases man-portable laser to shoot down drones (MP)
Russia using North Korean missile tech to upgrade its weapons, Kyiv says (NKN)
Russia is using a mobile jammer to target Starlink satellites (U24)

NATO plans to modernize its nuclear assets and improve planning (BBG)
France prepares Ukraine-inspired ‘kill web’ for battlefield awareness (DN)
France picks MBDA-Safran combo to supply multiple rocket launcher (DN)
Poland weighs joining X-BAT autonomous vertical-takeoff fighter program (DN)
Sudan ditches Iranian weapons, courts U.S. support to end war (BBG)
Ukraine’s demand for tiny drone laser-targeting systems spurs new product launches (DN)

Air Force selects General Atomics, Anduril for CCA production (ASF)
Divergent builds Monolith One, its massive 3D printer, announces second factory (PRN)
General Atomics awarded U.S. Army contract for extended-range artillery round (MT)
GM, Lockheed sign pact to accelerate weapons production (SS)
Lockheed’s Skunk Works, Divergent unveil 3D-printed one way attack drone (AVW)
KNDS pitches long-barreled artillery for 60-km base range (DN)
Renault teams up with Thales to boost France’s drone production (DN)
Valar Atomics‘ Ward 250 achieved criticality, marking second success under DoE pilot program (DSR)

Data from ‘half a million hours of Ukraine conflict drone footage’ now available to train AI (DS)
Rheinmetall pitches shipping container drone hives (DN)

London-listed BAE Systems is committing €50M ($67M) to Expeditions and Lakestar funds focused on backing European defense tech startups (PU)

Principal Mineral raised $280M in new funding led by Overmatch Ventures and The New Industrial Corp. and will acquire Cerberus-backed chip technology firm Isola Group (PRN)
Twenty, America’s first VC-backed cyber warfare startup, raised a $100M Series B at a $1B valuation led by Accel (PRN)
French defense tech specialist Comand AI raised a $36.7M Series A led by Blossom Capital to fuel its next-gen command and control systems (PU)
Traysar raised a $25M seed round led by Silent Ventures for its subterranean defense technologies (PU)
HighGround, a defense and aerospace intelligence/data startup, raised a $6.5M seed round led by Next Frontier Capital (AX)
Lithuania-based PDKINEMATICS raised a $2.3M seed round co-led by Coinvest Capital and Iron Wolf Capital to develop precision guidance systems and components for UAV munitions (sUN)

Italian aerospace and defense company Leonardo and Abu Dhabi military conglomerate EDGE detailed plans for a $5B J.V. (TDP)
Arcline Investment Management is set to take A&D identification and labeling company AstroNova private in a $272M deal (BW)
Godspeed Capital-backed GALT Aerospace agreed to acquire North Star Scientific Corp., a provider of defense communication products (BW)