Thanks for putting this together. As far as the Chinese and Russians seeking space dominance, who is closest to achieving it? Is the US doing enough in space to stay ahead?
Great question! We think there are a few lenses, through which to look at it.
First, launch capability.
The United States is unparalleled in launch capacity and capability--mostly due to SpaceX. If we were to take SpaceX out of the equation, the remaining US-based launch providers (ULA, Blue Origin, NG/Orbital ATK, Firefly, and we'll include RocketLab - but we won't count Relativity until they fly the Terran-R in 2026, Stoke, etc until proven), then our capacity drops to roughly on-par with Russia.
As things currently stand, we've a strong lead, although China is making rapid progress in their launch capacity--developing private and semi-private corporations to augment the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Russia is bringing up the rear of the three countries, relying still on old launch technology.
----
On orbit satellites.
To that point, China is incredibly ambitious--and is working feverishly to enhance its launch and on-orbit capabilities. China has no fewer than four planned megaconstellations. The Guang National Network, the Kenfan, or Thousand Sales Constellation, Geespace, and Honghu-3. Satellites for all of these constellations, except Honghu-3, have launched.
By comparison, Russia has plans for a national project of a mere 650 satellites, of which none have launched yet.
----
Innovation.
China is driving significant technological developments in space: distributed data storage and computing capability on-orbit, optical communication, quantum tech integration, and orbital refueling. Almost certainly, some of their claims are exaggerated. Nevertheless, they are pushing boundaries there. Some of their advancements lag behind the U.S.'s, some exceed. But if we take our foot off the accelerator, we risk them surpassing us.
China also operates its own, independent space station.
Russia continues to participate in the ISS mission, along with the U.S. and other countries. It's also developing unique counterspace capabilities (more on that in a bit).
----
Policy.
China maintains a clear, assertive, and ambitious space policy to explore the vast cosmos, develop the space industry, and build China into a space power is our eternal dream. China is also leading efforts to create international and multinational partnerships for space--especially into its lunar program that it's set up as a counter to Artemis.
Russia's space policy is far less clearly articulated. Much of that comes out of necessity as the country's finances and economy are a mess. It's forced to treat its space program as an 'economy of force' effort while it funds its war in Ukraine.
For the United States, space policy is a major area of concern for us. The current administration has proposed deep cuts to NASA's budget, has no nominated administrator, and has seemingly prioritized interplanetary crewed missions to Cislunar space control. To us that's a grave mistake and could cede the most important part of space to China.
----
Counterspace Capabilities.
Both China and Russia have developed extensive counterspace capabilities ranging from direct ascent ASATs to directed energy weapons to on-orbit RPO (rendezvous and proximity ops) spacecraft. We also believe that they have placed other sorts of weapons in space including spacecraft that can 'shoot' other spacecraft.
----
Final analysis.
So, our final analysis is that the United States maintains a lead in space programs over either China or Russia. However, incoherence in our focus risks ceding that advantage to China.
China has a far more advanced space program at this point than Russia, and is nipping at our heels.
So, Russia perceiving--that it has largely lost the ability to control space and recognizing that others have sufficient advantage--has decided that it's willing to cut off its nose to spite its face. Russia has developed on-orbit nuclear weapons capabilities that could cause wide-spread denial of space (particularly LEO), essentially damaging every satellite regardless of country of origin. This is a wild, 'if I can't have her, no one can' sort of mentality.
Should they launch such a weapon, it will fundamentally change the advantages.
Thanks for such a detailed reply. This arc seems to be pretty common throughout the whole US vs. China narrative: we have a slight technological advantage because we had a headstart, but China's tenacity and speed of innovation is closing that gap. I think our biggest limitor is our mindset when it comes to China. America has been top dog for so long that we've become comfortable and lost the culture that made us strong. I just hope that it doesn't take a slap in the face to get that culture back.
Thanks for putting this together. As far as the Chinese and Russians seeking space dominance, who is closest to achieving it? Is the US doing enough in space to stay ahead?
Great question! We think there are a few lenses, through which to look at it.
First, launch capability.
The United States is unparalleled in launch capacity and capability--mostly due to SpaceX. If we were to take SpaceX out of the equation, the remaining US-based launch providers (ULA, Blue Origin, NG/Orbital ATK, Firefly, and we'll include RocketLab - but we won't count Relativity until they fly the Terran-R in 2026, Stoke, etc until proven), then our capacity drops to roughly on-par with Russia.
As things currently stand, we've a strong lead, although China is making rapid progress in their launch capacity--developing private and semi-private corporations to augment the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Russia is bringing up the rear of the three countries, relying still on old launch technology.
----
On orbit satellites.
To that point, China is incredibly ambitious--and is working feverishly to enhance its launch and on-orbit capabilities. China has no fewer than four planned megaconstellations. The Guang National Network, the Kenfan, or Thousand Sales Constellation, Geespace, and Honghu-3. Satellites for all of these constellations, except Honghu-3, have launched.
By comparison, Russia has plans for a national project of a mere 650 satellites, of which none have launched yet.
----
Innovation.
China is driving significant technological developments in space: distributed data storage and computing capability on-orbit, optical communication, quantum tech integration, and orbital refueling. Almost certainly, some of their claims are exaggerated. Nevertheless, they are pushing boundaries there. Some of their advancements lag behind the U.S.'s, some exceed. But if we take our foot off the accelerator, we risk them surpassing us.
China also operates its own, independent space station.
Russia continues to participate in the ISS mission, along with the U.S. and other countries. It's also developing unique counterspace capabilities (more on that in a bit).
----
Policy.
China maintains a clear, assertive, and ambitious space policy to explore the vast cosmos, develop the space industry, and build China into a space power is our eternal dream. China is also leading efforts to create international and multinational partnerships for space--especially into its lunar program that it's set up as a counter to Artemis.
Russia's space policy is far less clearly articulated. Much of that comes out of necessity as the country's finances and economy are a mess. It's forced to treat its space program as an 'economy of force' effort while it funds its war in Ukraine.
For the United States, space policy is a major area of concern for us. The current administration has proposed deep cuts to NASA's budget, has no nominated administrator, and has seemingly prioritized interplanetary crewed missions to Cislunar space control. To us that's a grave mistake and could cede the most important part of space to China.
----
Counterspace Capabilities.
Both China and Russia have developed extensive counterspace capabilities ranging from direct ascent ASATs to directed energy weapons to on-orbit RPO (rendezvous and proximity ops) spacecraft. We also believe that they have placed other sorts of weapons in space including spacecraft that can 'shoot' other spacecraft.
----
Final analysis.
So, our final analysis is that the United States maintains a lead in space programs over either China or Russia. However, incoherence in our focus risks ceding that advantage to China.
China has a far more advanced space program at this point than Russia, and is nipping at our heels.
So, Russia perceiving--that it has largely lost the ability to control space and recognizing that others have sufficient advantage--has decided that it's willing to cut off its nose to spite its face. Russia has developed on-orbit nuclear weapons capabilities that could cause wide-spread denial of space (particularly LEO), essentially damaging every satellite regardless of country of origin. This is a wild, 'if I can't have her, no one can' sort of mentality.
Should they launch such a weapon, it will fundamentally change the advantages.
Thanks for such a detailed reply. This arc seems to be pretty common throughout the whole US vs. China narrative: we have a slight technological advantage because we had a headstart, but China's tenacity and speed of innovation is closing that gap. I think our biggest limitor is our mindset when it comes to China. America has been top dog for so long that we've become comfortable and lost the culture that made us strong. I just hope that it doesn't take a slap in the face to get that culture back.